Growing anxiety in Government over results of referendums after voters stay home

There was growing anxiety within Government over the results of the referendums on family and care as voters stayed home in their droves after a campaign that failed to ignite widespread public interest.

Reports of slow voting across the country throughout Friday led to scepticism among some in Government circles that turnout would reach 40 per cent.

There was also a level of pessimism at the likely result with sources conceding that one or both of the referendums could fail on a very low turnout.

As of early Friday evening, just 25 per cent of voters had cast a ballot in Dublin city, but in Galway by 8.30pm turnout was reported as being between 29 per cent and 41 per cent.

By late Friday evening reports of turnout in different parts of the Dún Laoghaire constituency ranged between 37 per cent and 46 per cent. At around 7.30pm, the percentage was averaging around 42 per cent in Wicklow-Arklow, while turnout in the combined Bray-Greystones area in Co Wicklow late in the evening was 47.9 per cent.

There were two referendums on Friday.

A Yes vote in the first one would expand the definition of family in the Constitution to recognise “durable relationships”, such as cohabiting couples and their children.

The proposal before the people in the second vote was to replace the language around women’s duties “in the home” with language recognising care within families.

Counting of the votes begins at 9am on Saturday and there is to be two separate declarations of the results expected later in the day.

Confusion over the propositions being put to the people as well as the perception that the campaign failed to capture the public’s attention were cited by Government sources concerned that No votes could be returned when the results roll in.

One source said: “We’re not conceding defeat, but it’s not looking good”.

Another said it was “definitely possible to lose”, while adding “no one can call it.”

Green Senator Pauline O’Reilly, who ran her party’s campaign, said on Friday evening “there’s a way to go yet but obviously turnout is a concern”.

She highlighted how all of the major political parties backed Yes-Yes votes as did “a huge amount of civil society”.

“On the face of that you would have to think that it should pass but it really is about whether people got their voters out or not,” she added.

Labour Party leader Ivana Bacik said she hoped to see more people turning out after work on Friday evening and she said she was hearing “many saying they have swung back to a Yes-Yes over the last day or so.”

However, she added: “It will be very tight.”

Campaigners for a No vote in the family referendum have highlighted uncertainty over the meaning of the phrase “durable relationships” and argued that introducing the wording into the Constitution could have implications in areas like succession, immigration and taxation law.

In the care referendum many on the No side have criticised the lack of recognition of care in the wider community in the proposed amendment and many argued that the Government’s wording does not place enough obligation on the State to support care.

Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín, whose party campaigned for a No-No vote, said his sense was that turnout will not be at “the very bottom of the expectations”.

He said that while he was “cautious” he sensed “momentum” for the No side adding: “My own hunch is the care amendment is most likely to fail and the other one will be tight.”

Counting is getting under way in two referendums on the issues of Family and Care with boxes opened in 29 count centres at 9am. Video: Tom Honan/Bryan O'Brien

A previous referendum with low turnout – the vote on children’s rights which saw 33.5 per cent of voters turn up to the polls – passed by 57.4 per cent, a lower support level than expected.

Turnout on Friday will not reach anywhere near the 60.5 per cent of the electorate that voted in the referendum on same sex marriage or 64.1 per who turned up for the referendum on repealing the Eighth Amendment on abortion.

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