Many destinations come with a health warning

TRAVEL WARNINGS:POLITICAL TURMOIL and natural disasters are not factors you'd usually consider when making holiday plans, but 2011 is proving to be pretty tumultuous, with devastating earthquakes and major upheavals forcing many holidaymakers to reassess their plans.

Top of the list are the countries of Saharan Africa and the Middle East, which are in the throes of popular uprisings not seen since the collapse of the Iron Curtain. Casting off the yoke of autocracy is messy, leaving the likes of Egypt and Tunisia – stalwarts of the sun tourism market – in a state of instability. Although the situation in Egypt has calmed down since the departure of Hosni Mubarak, a curfew is in place everywhere except the Red Sea resorts (you can still party on in Sharm el-Sheikh) and the potential for unrest is real.

Tunisia lifted its curfew on February 15th, resulting in a return to normalcy for most of the country, but the threat of demonstrations and industrial action remains, with travellers advised to remain alert and aware of the political situation.

The situation is much more dangerous in Bahrain and Libya, which have been declared off-limits to all non-essential travel. Neither country is popular with Irish holidaymakers, but regional developments have the potential to trigger unrest in other countries that are popular, like Morocco. Travellers to Morocco are advised to avoid all demonstrations and to carry a copy of their passport at all times – as well as load up with extra travel insurance as you never know when an emergency evacuation will be required.

This year also promises to be a difficult year for Mexican tourism, as a bloody war involving drug cartels and the state has engulfed the northern towns of Tijuana, Monterrey and Ciudad Juárez. In the past year, the violence has seeped southward, and the US State Department has issued a travel advisory for the states of Sinaloa (which includes cruise destination Mazatlán), Michoacán and Guerrero (home to Acapulco).

The ferocious nature of the bloodshed, coupled with the state’s inability to combat the cartels, should give pause to holidaymakers planning a stay along Mexico’s northern Pacific coast. Concern is felt even by visitors to Cancún and Yúcatan on the other side of the country.

If states, especially unpopular ones, are ineffective against a determined populace, they are powerless in the face of natural disaster. The 2010 Haiti earthquake wrought disaster, but the devastation was compounded by poverty and the absence of functioning infrastructure.

New Zealand’s South Island has been hit by two major earthquakes in the last five months but despite efforts to repair the damage, many will think twice before heading to such an active seismic zone. Similarly, many will rethink going to Queensland, Australia after January’s floods, using the logic that if it isn’t water that will ruin the holiday, it’s the bushfires that threaten the suburbs with regularity.

The world is your oyster, but in 2011 it’s an oyster that comes with an increasingly loud health warning.

For official travel advisories, see the Department of Foreign Affairs’ website – dfa.ie