Blair offers Ahern solidarity as British farming crisis worsens

The British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, offered the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, his "support and solidarity" last night after confirmation of the Republic's first case of foot-and-mouth disease.

But Mr Blair's domestic consensus was under renewed strain as 22 new cases brought the UK's total number of confirmed cases of the disease to 459.

The Prime Minister was heckled by a handful of protesters as he arrived for talks with farming leaders, Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food officials and members of the Cumbrian tourist board in Carlisle.

Agriculture Minister Mr Nick Brown and Environment Minister Mr Michael Meacher were accused of sending conflicting messages, as one of the government's expert advisers predicted the epidemic would peak in May at the earliest.

Mr Meacher was in the West Country yesterday trying to boost tourism as the first full-page advertisements appeared in newspapers telling people the countryside was open for business. Mr Blair was set to take that message to the EU summit in Stockholm as Mr Brown again denied suggestions the disease was out of control.

However, that was immediately set against the assertion by one of his ministry's principal scientific advisers that the disease was "not under control".

Prof Roy Anderson's view came as the first pre-emptive cull of 1,300 sheep got under way in Dumfries and Galloway, and as the official figures confirmed that 400,000 animals have now been chosen for slaughter, just 40,000 less than the total culled in 1967.

There were the first indications from ministers that their efforts at containment were not keeping pace with the spread of the disease, following Prof Anderson's warning that a projected "peak" of the disease in early May was a best-case scenario.

Prof Anderson, of Imperial College, Oxford, confirmed his projections suggested that, even if the disease did peak in May, the outbreak would not be eliminated until August.

He had earlier told BBC's Newsnight programme: "I think everyone is in agreement, both the government, the farming community and the independent scientific advice, that this epidemic is not under control at the current point in time. If this cull is applied vigorously and effectively enough you could turn the epidemic into a decaying process, hopefully within a month to two months. Doing something even better than that, I'm not convinced is possible at the moment."

As vast tracts of the British countryside faced the prospect of many months without sheep, the president of the National Farmers' Union, Mr Ben Gill, suggested more "very severe" measures might yet be necessary.

Mr Meacher became the first minister to accept the epidemic might not peak before Mr Blair's preferred election date, as expert opinion hardened around the view that this crisis will now prove much worse than that of 1967.

Asked if he accepted the crisis might now extend into May, Mr Meacher told BBC television: "That may well be so. No one can be sure of the course of the disease."

From former prime minister Mr John Major, however, came the unwelcome advice that Mr Blair should put his general election plans on hold.

Mr Major insisted "the Prime Minister's first responsibility is to deal with this crisis" and there was "no need" for Mr Blair to seek a dissolution of parliament a year early. He was backed by Mr Gill, who said people in rural Britain would suffer "extreme feelings of disenfranchisement" if the election went ahead.