UK ports chaos concentrates minds on abyss of no-deal Brexit

When Boris Johnson had his "excellent conversation" with Emmanuel Macron on Monday afternoon, they agreed to try to sort out the chaos at the border created by a ban on hauliers crossing from Britain into France. But they avoided the other great issue that divides them, and which could lead to a repeat within a fortnight of the scenes of long lines of lorries stuck on the side of the road in Kent.

"I had a great conversation with Emmanuel. We agreed to stay off Brexit," Johnson said.

With a mutant virus raging through southeast of England and already present elsewhere in the country, British flights banned from more than 40 countries and freight movements across the English Channel halted, the short-term cost of a no-deal Brexit could scarcely be greater. Tougher coronavirus restrictions and an effective lockdown in London expected to last for weeks into the new year will inevitably lead to more business failures and job losses. Failure to reach a deal with the EU would magnify the economic hit.

Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon called on Monday for an extension of the Brexit transition period beyond December 31st but, unlike the ferries between Dover and Calais, that ship has sailed. Johnson missed the deadline to extend the transition last July and any attempt to reopen the withdrawal agreement to do so now would be deeply problematic.

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Deal on fisheries

The best hope for avoiding the chaos of no-deal remains in the negotiations between Michel Barnier and David Frost, which continue in Brussels. Both sides insist that important questions around the level playing field and governance are not resolved and that fishing is not the only outstanding issue.

But a good deal on fisheries, which Johnson can plausibly present as a clear win for British fishermen, would allow him to show greater flexibility on the remaining issues. After pushing through the European Parliament’s deadline on Sunday night, the talks are now threatening to push on through Christmas.

Government sources say the legislation required by any deal is likely to go through Westminster on December 30th, a day before the transition ends, and Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg has agreed that MPs could take part in the debate remotely. Downing Street on Monday dismissed suggestions that the French action in blocking freight movements was intended as a warning about the impact of a no-deal outcome to the Brexit talks.

But regardless of the motive, it has certainly concentrated minds in Whitehall and brought home the depth of the abyss Johnson faces if he opts to “prosper mightily” under WTO rules.