Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has exposed him as both wrong and weak

Russia’s war against Ukraine is in trouble. A week ago a well-planned Ukrainian counteroffensive in northeast Ukraine sent Russian forces there into a panic of retreat. Fast moving Ukrainian military forces recaptured thousands of kilometres of occupied territory as well as vast stocks of weapon in just six days. Subsequently, they discovered a mass grave in Izium with hundreds of victims, some apparently tortured before death.

It is too early to tell whether Ukraine’s breakthrough will change the course of the war. Russia still occupies roughly 116,000 square kilometres of internationally recognised Ukraine, about 19% of the country. That’s an area 1.7 times the size of the Republic of Ireland. Ukrainians are still dying every day on front lines and from Russian missile attacks on their infrastructure. Momentum in this stubbornly enduring war, however, appears to be shifting.

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Ukraine’s victory was a very public humiliation for Putin. Psychologically, this matters a great deal. Ukrainians’ morale rocketed. Fervent desire to defend one’s home from invasion has always been Ukraine’s great advantage facing Russian forces in this war. Marrying that motivation to careful planning, strong organisation, appropriate weaponry, and real time intelligence — now provided by the United States — is allowing the Ukrainian military to become a formidable fighting force. Confidence in ultimate victory is high. War aims have also hardened. No more is there talk of returning to February 2022 lines. All Ukrainian lands must be liberated. And Putin must answer for his crimes.

The psychological impacts on Russia and its allies are corrosive. Within Russian-occupied Ukraine, those collaborating with the Russian military and participating in occupation administration structures will now be deeply unsettled

Demonstrating military success has also made it easier for those advocating for sustained military and financial support for Ukraine. The US is pledging military support to Ukraine on an almost weekly basis. This week it announced another $600 million (€602 million) in aid. This followed nearly $2.9 billion (€2.91 billion) of support announced last week by US officials visiting Kyiv and more than $3 billion (€3.01 billion) announced in late August. President Joe Biden has sent nearly $15.9 billion (15.97 billion) to Ukraine since he took office. European Union support continues apace too. Financial support is desperately needed for Ukraine faces enormous challenges with destroyed infrastructure, displaced people and a collapsed economy. Ukraine needed to show sceptics that it could convert military support into battlefield success. It did so in spectacular fashion.

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The psychological impacts on Russia and its allies are corrosive. Within Russian-occupied Ukraine, those collaborating with the Russian military and participating in occupation administration structures will now feel even more unsettled than they did. Most will have seen the images of Ukrainian soldiers tearing down billboards proclaiming togetherness with Russia. Russia promised to stay forever but fled after a few chaotic months. Even in Crimea and the Donbas some may be checking the exits. Russian backed regimes elsewhere are nervous.

Potentially the most consequential psychological impact is within Russia’s political life. Ukraine’s rout of the Russian military is a big blow to Putin’s image as a strongman. Putin built his rule on restoring Russia’s strength. After the Beslan terrorist attack of September 2004 he declared that “we displayed weakness. And the weak are always beaten.” Thereafter Putin rebuilt Russia’s vertical of power with himself at the pinnacle. But the personalistic regime he built has corrupt foundations. This has produced systemic failures and weaknesses — most especially in how the Russian military operates — that have been exposed by Putin’s war against Ukraine.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most dangerous geopolitical crisis of our time. More twists and turns are likely

Putin now needs to watch his back. It was possible for him to be wrong about Ukraine so long as he appeared strong. But he is now exposed as both wrong and weak. His unnecessary war has boomeranged into an existential one for him. Far-right Russian nationalists demand a tougher war against Ukraine, with full mobilisation of the population. Russia’s oligarchs and diplomats know they have to keep quiet to survive but are likely desperate for change. This can come suddenly. In the Soviet Union everything was forever until it was no more. So it may be with Putinism.

Putin’s relative weakness deepens the uncertainties and risks that lie ahead. In the wake of Ukraine’s battlefield success, veteran US diplomat Rose Gottemoeller warned that battlefield setbacks for Russia could prompt it to turn to tactical nuclear weapons. Ukraine’s top military officials acknowledge this as a genuine danger too. Yet Ukraine’s battlefield success makes restraint more difficult to signal and achieve.

It is easy to see why the commander of Russia’s nuclear forces might perceive those who are all-in for Ukraine as being all-out to get Russia and himself personally. Talk of putting him on trial for war crimes, as Ursula von der Leyen did recently, gives Putin no way out. Crusaders for Ukraine today are happy to have a showdown with a malign narcissistic personality like Putin. Restrainers are justifiably fearful of how reckless such a stance may prove to be.

Recall Angela Merkel’s warning about Putin ‘living in another world.’ Feeling this world coming apart, Putin might well decide to escalate by attacking Nato supply lines into Ukraine. From the outset he believed that he was really fighting the United States and Nato in Ukraine. His own actions, of course, have produced this as a near reality. Widening the war to directly involve Nato is a move he may feel is necessary to reassert fear and survive politically.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the most dangerous geopolitical crisis of our time. More twists and turns are likely. Winter is coming, and with it an enormous test of European Union solidarity. Here’s hoping our reserves of luck, not just fuel, are full.

Gerard Toal is a professor at Virginia Tech and author of Near Abroad: Putin, the West and the Contest over Ukraine and the Caucasus, now available as an audiobook