Polling public opinion – does it still work?

Sir, – In the February 9th edition of The Irish Times the results of polls on public opinion on the recent referendums were reported (“Majority say they will vote Yes, but margin may narrow ahead of March poll”, News, February 9th).

Sampling covered 120 sites across all constituencies nationally, interviewing 1,200 adults. The percentage saying they would vote No was 12 per cent and 15 per cent on the care and family proposals respectively. The number saying they would not vote was 5 per cent with the margin of error estimated at 2.8 per cent. Over 50 per cent said they would vote Yes to each proposal. It is difficult to fathom how any such poll could be so far from reality. There were no enormous game-changing revelations in the run-up to the vote. Given the perceived “progressive” nature of the amendments proposed, I wonder if what is referred to in the UK as the “shy Tory phenomenon” is a factor here? This describes a scenario where people hold views they perceive as so at odds with societal pressures they won’t even admit them to pollsters but act on them in the voting booth. It is hard to imagine a poll more unreflective of an outcome, or generally useless. – Yours, etc,

BRIAN O’BRIEN,

Kinsale,