World suddenly at a critical point in race to decarbonise

The world is at a critical point in the race to decarbonise economies. It coincides with a year of unrelenting climate turbulence, serving as a reminder that there are too many indications Planet Earth is moving into uncharted territory.

Extreme weather events, undoubtedly exacerbated by climate change, were concentrated in the northern hemisphere in the form of wildfires, unprecedented heatwaves and flash flooding throughout the summer. This coincided with widespread destruction and loss of life – yet another indication that we are losing our ability to fully control our collective fate, as too many limits for safe existence are breached.

Earth’s life-support systems have been so damaged that the planet is “well outside the safe operating space for humanity”, scientists warned in an assessment published in Science Advances in September.

They found that six out of nine “planetary boundaries” had been broken because of human-caused pollution and destruction of the natural world. The boundaries are the limits of key global systems – such as climate, water and wildlife diversity – beyond which such systems’ ability to maintain a healthy planet is in danger of failing.

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Along with phasing out fossil fuels, the scientists argue that ending destructive farming practices – which cause deforestation, habitat loss and pollution on a massive scale – is now the most urgent priority.

On a more positive note, the past few months have, arguably, coincided with unprecedented understanding of the climate threat and greater willingness to take swift action. There is strong indication that corporations and big businesses are embracing genuine sustainability and pursing new technological solutions, as reflected in the latest issue of Sustainable Ireland.

In tandem with this are indications that the scale-up of renewable energy sources and adoption of electric vehicles may be reaching critical mass. Moreover, the crucial issue of phasing out fossil fuels is forcing its way into the political realm like never before. This is pivotal because this is the single most effective action to address emissions and global warming.

Global fossil-fuel emissions will reach its highest point in 2025 and drop to 2015 levels by 2030, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in early October. The speed of roll-out of key clean-energy technologies means the IEA now projects that demand for coal, oil and natural gas will all peak this decade.

And while the IEA noted solar power’s outstanding performance, it warned that planned wind-energy projects are falling short of what it estimates will be necessary by 2030. Wind is a particularly valuable resource during winter when energy demand peaks.

The failure of a recent UK “auction” for offshore projects confirms the wind sector is being buffeted by inflation and escalating costs – a timely reminder to the Irish Government that its ambitious offshore-wind plans for up to 2030 could face difficulties without the right supports and if necessary infrastructure is not in place on time.

There is some prospect of tangible progress against the odds at the annual UN climate negotiations – Cop28 – in the United Arab Emirates later this year. Petrostates are likely to be again to the fore in attempting to block agreement but Spain has backed the Netherlands’ call for an international coalition to phase out fossil-fuel subsidies which are a big incentive to increase fossil fuel use. IEA chief Fatih Birol has said “eliminating them is an absolute must”.

Spain, which holds the EU presidency, is pushing for an international coalition to back the 2015 Paris deal’s target to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above preindustrial levels. Birol has warned that “geopolitical fragmentation” is one of the main hurdles to reaching the 1.5 degree goal.

EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson has said the 1.5 degree target was achievable but large investments would be needed. “We must massively invest in the deployment of the technologies of today and at the same time develop the technologies of tomorrow,” he said.

There are five conditions for Cop28 to be considered successful, according to the IEA. These include tripling global capital expenditure on renewables, a doubling of energy efficiency improvements and an agreement on mechanisms to support clean-energy financing in emerging economies.

The future of fossil fuels remains the big sticking point in advance of Cop28, with some countries calling for a phasing out of planet-warming energy sources and others insisting on preserving roles for coal, oil and natural gas. The Irish Government needs to row in with the push to phase them out.