Top-level change at African National Congress could tarnish hopes of retention of power

A leadership change at one of the African National Congress (ANC) party’s key provincial structures could significantly undermine the movement’s chances of retaining power in South Africa’s next general election in 2024.

The changing of the guard last weekend at the ANC’s provincial set-up in KwaZulu-Natal is also considered a blow to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ambitions to win a second term as the ruling party’s leader in December at its national elective conference. This is because the incoming provincial officials are aligned with his predecessor, Jacob Zuma, who was removed from South Africa’s presidency in 2018 by a Ramaphosa-led ANC, over allegations he facilitated the looting of the state during his nine years in office.

Zuma is seen as one of the more senior members of an ANC faction that is opposing Ramaphosa’s efforts to stamp out corruption in the governing party, under the guise he is trying to purge his internal political opponents.

Zuma and other ANC leaders have been charged with corruption and are due to stand trial this year.

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But political analysts believe the developments in KZN pose a far bigger threat to the ruling party’s 2024 ambitions than Ramaphosa’s more immediate goal, given the party currently has few viable alternatives that voters find acceptable. The ANC has seen its popularity among South Africans steadily decline during the past decade due to perceptions that many of its leaders are corrupt and ineffective, but the likable Ramaphosa’s rise to power slowed the bleed of voter support.

[ Support for ANC slides amid spiralling crime and daily power cuts ]

Although the two-thirds majority the ANC held in parliament in 2004 fell from 279 seats (out of 400) to 230 by the 2019 elections, Ramaphosa’s leadership likely kept the ANC’s voter support above the crucial 50 per cent mark in the last national poll, which kept it in power. Ramaphosa’s election as ANC leader in December 2017, and as South Africa’s president in 2019, was rooted in promises to tackle public sector corruption and revive the country’s dwindling economic fortunes. While the former businessman has struggled to achieve both to date, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies Gareth Newham says Ramaphosa is still likely to secure a second term as ANC president.

“The ANC’s election result in KZN last week is definitely a setback for Ramaphosa, but four of the other eight ANC provincial structures have already backed his bid for re-election so it would be surprising if he failed to win,” Newham says. “People in the ANC know that if Ramaphosa fails to secure a second term [as its leader], the party is almost guaranteed to lose its majority in 2024, meaning at best it would have to enter into a coalition to remain in government.”

The election last Sunday of Siboniso Duma and his allies to the ANC’s top six jobs in KZN is seen by many in the ruling party and the public as a direct challenge to Ramaphosa’s anti-corruption efforts.

Almost immediately after Duma’s victory was secured, his supporters called on the ANC to scrap its recently enforced “step-aside resolution” this weekend at its policy conference in Johannesburg. The resolution states that all ANC members in a leadership position who face criminal charges must step down from their role until legal proceedings against them are finalised.

Indeed, it can be argued that the only real concrete achievement Ramaphosa has made to date towards tackling corruption in the ANC was securing the resolution’s adoption by its national executive committee last year. Were the KZN branch of the ANC to get other provinces to agree to its proposal, many voters would see it as a betrayal of Ramaphosa’s efforts to enforce accountability in the party, and it would dash any hope its reformists have of preventing corruption in the movement.

Under those circumstances, it is unlikely that even Ramaphosa’s presence as the ANC’s leader would give the party a general election victory in 2024.