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The plan devised by Germany and eastern European allies to help Ukraine to defend itself seemed a good idea at the time. The likes of Poland would send their Soviet-era tanks to Kyiv; in turn Germany would backfill the gaps with western-made kit from its own inventories.
But a weapons transfer scheme designed to show the virtues of solidarity, while ensuring that Ukraine quickly got the weapons it needed and could operate, is becoming more of a bone of contention as allies blame each other for its failure to deliver.
Germany, for which the scheme meant a way to avoid provoking Russia unnecessarily by supplying tanks and armoured vehicles directly to Ukraine, admitted this week that despite protracted talks with Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, Greece and the Czech Republic, it had yet to sign a contract with any of them.
In the case of Poland, the failure to seal a deal threatens to become an irritant in relations with Germany. Warsaw gave 240 Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukraine and expected Berlin to compensate it with Leopard tanks from its own stocks. It offered just 20.
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Poland has turned to the US and South Korea to supply alternative kit. “The deal with Warsaw is basically dead,” said one German official.
German opposition parties are angry. “Germany is knowingly gambling away all the trust that has been built up over years,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, a Christian Democrat MP and a retired Bundeswehr colonel.
The German government rejects the accusation that it is failing Ukraine and its allies. This week, it pointed out, Kyiv confirmed that Germany had delivered the first three of 15 Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns to Ukraine, as well as three Mars II multiple-rocket launchers and three PzH armoured howitzers, in addition to the seven supplied in June. Meanwhile, the government gave the green light for PzH 2000 manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann to provide Kyiv with 100 more of the systems, altogether worth €1.7 billion.
Officials also emphasise that the Bundeswehr has deployed Patriot missile batteries in Slovakia — though these are still owned by Germany — after the government there gave Ukraine one of its Soviet-era S-300 surface-to-air missile systems.
But that has failed to quell opposition anger. They accuse chancellor Olaf Scholz of failing to abide by a Bundestag motion in April obliging the government to provide heavy weapons to Ukraine.
“The German public and parliament were deceived,” said Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democrat leader. “[Scholz’s] announcements on supporting Ukraine militarily do not stand up to scrutiny.”
Complex operation
German officials were initially confident of a number of weapons transfer deals. Mr Scholz said in May that Greece would provide Ukraine with Soviet-era armoured personnel carriers and Germany would fill the gap with APCs of its own. But nothing came of that.
Officials have blamed the complexity of arrangements that involve three different governments. “There are so many people involved that in the end, nothing will happen,” said one Greek official. Counterparts in Berlin agree. “It’s such a complex operation that if one cog malfunctions, the whole machine breaks down,” said one.
Mr Scholz’s spokeswoman said on Monday that the government was not giving up. “We are liaising closely with our partners on a series of transfer deals, the talks are very constructive and some of them have progressed quite far,” she said.
Indeed Annalena Baerbock, the German foreign minister, said on Tuesday that Germany was close to finalising an agreement to give German tanks to the Czech Republic, compensating it for the dozens of T-72s it has given to Ukraine.
What happened with Poland was an example of the scheme’s potential pitfalls, however. The German and Polish defence ministers agreed the principle of a transfer deal back in April, at an international conference on Ukraine held in Germany’s Ramstein airbase.
But Poland’s defence minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, told the magazine Sieci this week that Germany had subsequently offered just 20 Leopard 2A4 tanks, and “in such a condition that they can’t be used”. It would take a year to repair them, he added.
Mr Blaszczak said Poland had asked Germany to increase its offer to 44 tanks, enough to equip a small battalion. Berlin said that could not be done. “The reality is that the Bundeswehr just doesn’t have a lot of stuff to give away,” said one official.
German ‘swindle’
Despite the German setback, Poland is finding ways to bolster its military and compensate for the weaponry that it has sent to Ukraine. This month Warsaw announced the purchase of 116 used Abrams tanks from the US. On Wednesday it added a big deal with South Korea to buy almost 1,000 tanks, more than 600 pieces of artillery and dozens of fighter jets. The first consignment of 180 K2 tanks will arrive in Poland this year.
But the breakdown of the German contract led to recriminations in Warsaw. Deputy foreign minister Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk told Der Spiegel this month that Germany’s promises had proven to be a “swindle”.
That comment was typical of the hostile tone that has crept into much of the government’s rhetoric about Germany since the start of the Ukraine war. “I ask myself: what are the intentions of the current authorities in Warsaw?” the outgoing German ambassador to Poland, Arndt Freytag von Loringhoven, recently told the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita. “Do they want Germany to be a strong ally of Poland, or do they need us as a scapegoat for playing out their own internal problems?”
Nevertheless, the row about the failed transfer deal has crystallised a perception in parts of eastern Europe that Germany is underperforming in supporting Ukraine and tardy about fulfilling its commitments.
Piotr Arak, director of the Polish Economic Institute, a state-funded think-tank, said Germans “just don’t walk the talk” on policy towards Ukraine. Poles worry, he added, that “once war fatigue sets in and economic problems really start, [the Germans] will loosen the sanctions and they will do business again with Russia and import more gas”. — Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2022
Additional reporting by Eleni Varvitsioti in Athens