Second Scottish independence poll could take place in October 2023

Nicola Sturgeon has set out plans for a second Scottish independence referendum on October 19th next year, asking Britain’s supreme court to confirm that she has the power to do so. If the court rules against her, Scotland’s first minister said her Scottish National Party (SNP) would make the next British general election a de facto independence referendum.

“Democracy demands that people must have their say. I want the process set in train today to lead to a lawful, constitutional referendum and for that to take place on October 19th, 2023,” she told the Scottish parliament in Edinburgh.

“But if the law says that is not possible, the general election will be a ‘de facto’ referendum. Either way, the people of Scotland will have their say.”

Under the legislation that set out Scotland’s devolution settlement in 1998, constitutional issues remain the responsibility of Westminster. In 2014, David Cameron temporarily transferred to the Scottish parliament the power to hold an independence referendum under a so-called section 30 order.

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Boris Johnson has ruled out making a similar order, arguing that the 2014 vote, which rejected independence by 55 per cent to 45 per cent, had settled the matter for a generation. The SNP, which governs Scotland in coalition with the pro-independence Greens, claim that they have an electoral mandate for a second referendum.

Ms Sturgeon published a draft referendum Bill with the question to be the same as that in the 2014 poll: “Should Scotland be an independent country?” At her request, Scotland’s lord advocate on Tuesday asked the supreme court to determine if the Scottish parliament has the power to legislate for a referendum.

“Respect for the rule of law means that a referendum must be lawful. That, for me, is a matter of principle. But it is also a matter of practical reality,” Ms Sturgeon said.

“An unlawful referendum would not be deliverable. Even if it was, it would lack effect. The outcome would not be recognised by the international community. Bluntly, it would not lead to Scotland becoming independent. It is axiomatic that a referendum must be lawful.”

British referendums, including those on Scottish independence in 2014 and on Brexit in 2016, are advisory and require subsequent parliamentary legislation to have legal effect.

Mr Johnson said he would study the first minister’s proposal “very carefully”, but his spokesman said the British government’s position has not changed. Government lawyers are expected to argue before the supreme court that any move by the Scottish parliament to call a referendum would be invalid.

Ms Sturgeon said that if the supreme court decides against her, it will provide some clarity about the true basis of the devolution settlement that she wants to replace with an independent Scotland.

“What it will clarify is this: any notion of the UK as a voluntary union of nations is a fiction. Any suggestion that the UK is a partnership of equals is false,” she said.

“There would be few stronger or more powerful arguments for independence than that.”