Emissions data send Government into spin mode

The Government was right to raise a red flag over Eurostat’s latest emissions data, which once again painted Ireland as the continent’s chief climate laggard.

But it raised it for the wrong reason and ended up looking like it didn’t quite understand how the emissions were measured. Not a great look for a country trying to put two decades of fudging the climate issue behind it.

According to Eurostat’s latest quarterly emissions data, Ireland had the largest increase in greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union at the end of last year and was one of just four EU member states to increase emissions annually.

The State’s emissions were estimated to have increased by 12.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, almost twice the rate of growth seen in the next worst country, Latvia, where emissions rose by 6.8 per cent.

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The Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications immediately weighed in to explain that the Eurostat figures were not based on the real emissions inventory collated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) here, but inferred from “predictor variables” such as production and GDP (gross domestic product), which correlate historically with emissions.

This is true, but the department went a step further, blaming last year’s increase on the distorting effects of GDP, which, as we all know, tends to exaggerate domestic economic activity here.

Emissions from Irish-based airlines are counted as ‘Irish’ whether or not they originate in the State’s territory. Hence, the emissions produced by a Ryanair flight in eastern Europe accrue to Ireland

“Using GDP as a measure can have a distorting effect in Ireland due to the large number of multinationals based here,” a department spokeswoman said.

However, Eurostat later confirmed the jump in emissions had nothing to do with GDP but was driven – in the main – by an increase in aviation emissions as people returned to the skies in the wake of the pandemic. Airlines were responsible for three-quarters of the increase in Irish emissions in the fourth quarter, it said.

[ The Irish Times view on the latest report on climate change: reaching a tipping point ]

One of the key differences between Eurostat’s methodology and the EPA’s is the scope. Eurostat calculates emissions on a “residence basis” whereas the EPA confines itself to looking at emissions on a “territorial basis”.

So under Eurostat’s system, emissions from Irish-based airlines are counted as “Irish” whether or not they originate in the State’s territory. Hence, the emissions produced by a Ryanair flight in eastern Europe accrue to Ireland.

And it’s not just Ryanair – there are several other airlines based here, driving up our emissions tally. “The emissions by Irish resident airlines are accounted for, even if the emissions are emitted outside Irish territory,” Eurostat said.

As bad as Ireland’s emissions are or might be – we’ll get the actual numbers for 2022 from the EPA in July – the 12 per cent jump recorded by Eurostat is not a reflection of the State’s actual carbon footprint or its new action plan to curb emissions. The Government’s willingness to immediately blur the finding by blaming it on GDP was spin that backfired.

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Insiders say Eurostat is not trying to target individual member states but attempting to collate accurate data on emissions. It noted that emissions from transport – including air travel – increased 7 per cent across the EU in the closing quarter of 2022 when compared with the same period the previous year.

In contrast, the EPA greenhouse gas inventory only collates the emissions emanating from internal Irish flights.

The EPA’s last full-year audit pointed to a 5.2 per cent increase in emissions in 2021 compared to 2020, suggesting the State’s carbon budget limits up to 2025, agreed under the Government’s climate action plan, are already looking shaky.

[ Ireland’s climate strategy remains to kick the can down the road ]

The increase in 2021 was driven by lower-than-expected wind energy and the temporary shutdown of two gas plants at Huntsdown and Whitegate, which necessitated a greater call on Moneypoint’s coal burning operation. There were also increases in transport and agriculture emissions.

The EPA is, however, projecting only a marginal increase in emissions (0.1-0.3 per cent) in 2022. This still isn’t great when you consider most of our European peers are championing reductions, but it’s better than the Eurostat numbers.

The latest Eurostat emissions data come amid a warning from the World Meteorological Organisation that global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years

The scope of the carbon market for aviation is controversial. While the bulk of emissions come from long-haul flights, these aren’t covered by the EU emissions trading system (ETS), a system that makes companies pay for the cost of emitting polluting carbons.

As a result, long-haul carriers such as Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France don’t pay for a significant portion of their emissions. Approximately 85 per cent of Ryanair’s emissions were covered under the ETS last year but with free allowances, it only paid for 7 million tonnes of emissions (approximately 57 per cent of what it produced).

[ Irish business needs to be ‘bold and ambitious’ in tackling climate change ]

Aviation is also one of the few industries globally that pays no tax on fuel. The single biggest fossil fuel subsidy provided by the Irish Government in 2020 was the excise duty exemption for kerosene used for commercial aviation.

The Central Statistics Office estimates that the amount of revenue foregone in 2020 on jet kerosene due to the tax exemption was €234 million. But the figure is normally three times that (it was €634 million in 2019). The 2020 figure was warped by the pandemic.

Either way, the latest Eurostat emissions data come amid a warning from the World Meteorological Organisation that global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels in the next five years, fuelled by the ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases and a naturally-occurring El Niño event, potentially exceeding the 1.5 degree target laid down in the Paris climate accord.