What’s next for South Korea as scandal-ridden presidency totters?

A Bill to impeach President Park Geun-hye passed by 234 votes to 56, with nine invalid votes and abstentions. This means enough members of Park's own Saenuri party had voted against her to bring about her impeachment – a measure of the damage inflicted on her reputation since the scandal surfaced less than two months ago. The Bill needed the support of 200 of the assembly's 300 members to pass.

What happens next?

Park’s executive powers have been immediately suspended and transferred to the prime minister, Hwang Kyo-ahn. But the vote doesn’t mean she will have to vacate the presidential Blue House immediately.

Her fate will lie in the hands of nine judges at the country’s constitutional court, who will have up to 180 days to rule on whether the impeachment vote is valid.

Although the entire court bench was appointed by Park and her conservative predecessor, the strength of public anger towards her means she would be wrong to believe they could save her presidency.

“I believe the judges will make a decision based on their love of the country and conscience,” said Kim Jong-dae, who served on the bench between 2006 and 2012. “They are also people of the Republic of Korea, breathing the same air as all of us.”

The constitutional court will determine whether parliament followed due process and whether there are sufficient grounds for impeachment, a process that will involve arguments from both sides in public hearings.

If they ratify the vote, Park will formally resign and an election for a new South Korean president held within 60 days.

It would be an ignominious end for Park, who would go down in history as the first democratically elected South Korean president to be forced out of office.

Who is in the running to become South Korea’s next president?

Moon Jae-in, a veteran lawmaker from the opposition Democratic party of Korea, leads the opinion polls.

Moon has won plaudits for his uncompromising stance towards Park and his warning to constitutional court judges that overturning an impeachment vote would be a betrayal of the South Korean people. Moon, a former human rights lawyer, unsuccessfully challenged Park for the presidency in 2012.

The one-time frontrunner, UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, lies in second place, having suffered a recent dip in support due to his close association with Park’s Saenuri party – although he is not a member.

The 72-year-old career diplomat served as South Korea’s foreign minister from 2004 to 2006.

He has indicated an interest in returning to South Korean politics after he leaves his UN post at the end of the year, but has recently refused to comment publicly on the Park scandal.

There has been talk of Park's predicament creating a "Trump effect" in South Korea, fuelled by public fury towards the political establishment and, as underlined by the current cronyism scandal, its cozy ties with the country's wealthy, and powerful family-owned "chaebol" conglomerates.

That new political environment could open the door to Lee Jae-myung, the liberal mayor of Seongnam and an ardent supporter of Park’s impeachment. The 52-year-old, who could soon overtake Ban in the polls, has been a visible presence at the huge demonstrations that have swept South Korea in recent weeks, using them to call for a “revolution” in the country’s politics.

Other potential candidates are Seoul mayor and former civic activist Park Won-soon, and Ahn Cheol-soo, a software tycoon who ditched his 2012 run for the Blue House to form an alliance with Moon’s party. Ahn has been a vocal critic of the chaebol’s dominance of the South Korean economy.

What impact will the scandal have on South Korean politics?

Park’s future aside, the scandal has further exposed the unhealthy ties between establishment politicians and the country’s conglomerates.

That arrangement was largely tolerated while the chaebol spearheaded rapid growth in the South Korean economy – Asia's fourth-biggest – but the rising income gap, youth unemployment and high-profile problems affecting Samsung and other major companies, means voters' patience is wearing dangerously thin.

There are fears that the political turmoil engulfing South Korea could have an adverse impact on the economy. The finance ministry said it was concerned about further risks to the economy from “domestic issues” that could harm consumption and investment, adding to the uncertainty arising from the state of the global economy.

The Bank of Korea said it would hold emergency meetings to discuss possible policy responses to any fallout from the impeachment vote, according to a central bank official.

Some analysts have described Park’s fall from grace as a rare victory for people power, with protesters turning out in their hundreds of thousands in the biggest demonstrations South Korea has seen since the pro-democracy movement of the late 1980s.

Whether the recent scandal ushers in a new era of clean politics remains to be seen. Corruption and cronyism are nothing new in South Korea. Since its first democratic elections were held in 1987, every president has faced graft investigations after leaving office.

One of them, Roh Moo-hyun, committed suicide as a corruption investigation closed in on his family.

But while previous corruption scandals have often involved relatives who abused their links to the Blue House for financial gain, the figure at the centre of the latest controversy is none other than Park herself. – (Guardian service)