In their haste to claim the UK’s Rwanda immigration law is having an effect, the Irish and British governments are both glossing over the question of whether it will apply in Northern Ireland.
London insists the law applies in full to all parts of the UK. This is written into the legislation, which passed last week.
The Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission believes the law may violate the Windsor Framework, which protects certain rights and equality provisions in the Belfast Agreement and European Union law. Some of these provisions in turn apply to migrants.
The British government has published statements on why it believes the Windsor Framework protections are not invoked, although its arguments are as much declarations as explanations. The human rights commission’s view is also debatable. What is beyond dispute is that this is all heading to Northern Ireland’s courts, then probably the UK supreme court, with plenty of organisations keen to bring cases.
The potential number of such cases appears infinite due to the mind-bending intersection of national and international immigration law and Northern Ireland’s special Brexit arrangements. The European Commission could also contest the Rwanda law’s applicability, either on its own initiative or on receipt of complaints. Where cases relate to EU law, they could end up in the European Court of Justice.
There can never be a final resolution to the issue, no matter how many cases are brought, as some of the relevant laws in Northern Ireland must keep pace with legal changes in the EU. While the Rwanda law has brought this into focus, the same will be true of any British immigration system that diverges from the EU. A bottomless can of worms has been opened.
Endless uncertainty over immigration law could be enough to influence movement of people. Should Northern Ireland come to be seen, rightly or wrongly, as a part of the UK with a lower risk of deportation, it will inevitably attract more migrants.
Numbers of asylum seekers in the region have tripled since 2021 as the UK home office has cast its net wider for accommodation. Although this has barely been noticed it means Northern Ireland is much closer to a capacity constraint than is realised. A relatively trivial increase in arrivals from Britain could suddenly create problems of homelessness comparable to those in the Republic. Desperate people may start moving backwards and forwards across the Border in search of assistance. The destabilising impact on Irish politics looks like Brexit all over again, only with tides of humanity instead of shipments of bacon.
Nationalists and Alliance oppose the Rwanda Bill; unionists have supported it on condition it applies across the UK. This communal divide will widen as the row deepens. Immigration is not devolved but Stormont will argue over it anyway.
Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín wasted no time last weekend calling for “an Irish sea border in terms of people”.
Experience has taught unionists this could easily happen, despite London’s bluster in recent days. There are already low-key identity checks on internal UK flights and ferries.
Nationalists face their own dilemmas. Sinn Féin and the SDLP will want to support legal cases against the Rwanda law but this will become contentious if they are seen as contributing to immigration problems. Sinn Féin could be accused in the Republic of holding open a “back door” in the North.
For all the faults of Northern Ireland politics, it is the Irish and British governments that have disgraced themselves over the past week. Both have used the Rwanda scheme as a distraction from basic failures on immigration and asylum
As with Brexit, a united Ireland has quickly been suggested as the only long-term solution. In reality, a united Ireland would still have the same immigration problems. If unity becomes an anti-immigration fantasy, however, Sinn Féin will be further torn between its progressive rhetoric and the unreconstructed nationalism of many of its supporters.
Attitudes to immigration in Northern Ireland have long been characterised by a grotesque contest of sectarian one-upmanship. Liberal unionists used to flatter themselves on the UK’s diversity, in contrast to the “mono-ethnic and monocultural” Republic, to quote David Trimble. When immigrants finally arrived in significant numbers two decades ago, they tended to move to loyalist areas as that is where housing was available, due to demographic decline. Most racist incidents then occurred in those areas, while republicans congratulated themselves that their communities would do better. Growing pressure on accommodation is about to put this to the test. Events in the Republic suggest complacency is unwise.
For all the faults of Northern Ireland politics, it is the Irish and British governments that have disgraced themselves over the past week. Both have used the Rwanda scheme as a distraction from basic failures on immigration and asylum. They should concentrate on robust operation of existing systems, including security agreements for the Common Travel Area that make the Border perfectly manageable.
But that would require the will in Ireland’s case and the competence in Britain’s case, neither of which are in plentiful supply.