US and Saudi close to agreeing ‘plan B’ defence pact without Israel deal

Saudi Arabia and the US may be close to reaching a bilateral deal providing for a defence pact and nuclear and artificial intelligence co-operation instead of the touted trilateral agreement involving Saudi normalisation with Israel. The new deal has been dubbed plan B.

According to reports in the Guardian and Bloomberg, plan B could expand once Israel ends the Gaza war and if Israel commits to an “irreversible” pathway to achieve a Palestinian state in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza.

Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman and US secretary of state Antony Blinken reportedly, discussed plan B last weekend during the World Economic Forum in Riyadh.

For Riyadh, a Palestinian state has long been the key to Saudi relations with Israel. The Saudis remain committed to their 2002 peace plan calling for normalisation in exchange for a Palestinian state and Israeli withdrawal from territory occupied in 1967. Saudi monarchs style themselves as “custodians” of Islam’s holy cities of Mecca and Medina and could not maintain this exalted status if they consigned Jerusalem, the third holiest city for Muslims, to permanent Israeli control. Furthermore, according to a poll conducted by the pro-Israel Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank, 96 per cent of Saudis oppose ties with Israel.

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As head of Israel’s most right-wing ever government, prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu has flatly rejected a Palestinian state, the quid pro quo in the Biden administration’s historic bargain, or plan A, for resolving the 76-year-old Arab-Israeli conflict.

Washington Middle East Institute senior director Firas Maksad posted on X that the US should not be held hostage by Israel but accept “less for less”. He argued in a separate X post. “Think beyond normalisation with Israel. This is a strategic pact between Saudi & the US meant to cement America’s position at a time when the kingdom & others have been diversifying their foreign policy options.”

Washington appears determined to reassert its influence after disengaging from the troubled region in recent years. The turning point for the Saudis came in 2019, when the US failed to defend the kingdom’s oil facilities from a missile attack by Houthis fighting Saudi Arabia in Yemen. Since then Riyadh has pivoted east and stepped up efforts to cement new relationships.

As leaders of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), Saudi Arabia and Russia have become closely allied. Despite Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia has continued to import Russian-refined petroleum products and has intensified investment in Russian energy firms.

Saudi Arabia has also cultivated financial and energy ties with China. In 2022, Riyadh and Beijing concluded a $4 billion deal for the purchase of drones, ballistic missiles and anti-drone laser defences. Last year Beijing mediated Riyadh’s reconciliation with Tehran, Washington’s regional antagonist.

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