Tesla expected to announce record quarterly deliveries

Tesla is expected to announce record quarterly deliveries as the electric vehicle (EV) giant tries to recover from supply-chain snarls that crimped output earlier this year.

The totals are poised for release this weekend once Tesla finishes sales at midnight Friday, the last day of the quarter. Deliveries are one of the most closely watched metrics by investors, underpinning Tesla’s financial results and offering a barometer for consumer demand for EVs.

The group also plans to push global production of its top-selling Model Y and Model 3 electric vehicles sharply higher in the fourth quarter and build on that growth in 2023 as newer factories in Austin and Berlin ramp production, internal plans reviewed by Reuters show.

Tesla’s production forecast, if achieved, would put the electric vehicle maker on track to meet Elon Musk’s goal for production in the coming quarter and put the automaker close to the scale of German luxury automaker BMW by end-2023.

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The ambitious goal came despite lingering supply chain risks, a slowing economy and rising competition and falling Tesla order backlogs. But its forecast, which covers the next four consecutive quarters, sets an ambitious target to produce almost 495,000 Model Y and Model 3s in the fourth quarter of this year. Those two models account for about 95 per cent of Tesla’s output.

The production plans would see Tesla blow past projected growth in the global market for autos by close to a factor of 10 in 2023 with a production increase of over 50 per cent for the year.

Tesla’s expansion has been expensive. In late May, Mr Musk had said new factories in Texas and Germany were losing billions of dollars, comparing them to “gigantic money furnaces”.

Brokerage Piper Sandler projects Tesla will deliver 354,000 vehicles in the third quarter. Citi expects deliveries of 369,800 vehicles. Troy Teslike, a Tesla-watcher who tracks production and delivery data, projects sales of 343,779 Model Y compact crossovers and Model 3 sedans.

If Tesla hits or exceeds those analyst forecasts and then makes the internal forecast seen by Reuters for the coming quarter, the company would have global sales of around 1.4 million vehicles in 2022.

Tesla’s output and deliveries have been higher in the fourth quarter than other quarters of the year going back to 2018. Its forecast production of 1.59 million Model Y and Model 3s through the first three quarters of next year, would put it on track to end 2023 with sales of over 2.1 million EVs. — Reuters/Bloomberg