High-profile corporate entities with significant sites across Ireland may have to halt production in the event of large-scale disruption to gas supply, a Government briefing document has said.
“The implications of having key sectors (that are gas-intensive) essentially cease production for six months would be devastating for the economy/society,” the report noted.
“Aside from direct economic impacts through loss of jobs and tax revenues, there would be a risk that some entities might leave the jurisdiction permanently and switch production to other locations – massive reputational issues for Ireland.”
The potential for such disruption was contained in a briefing presentation prepared for the Government Task Force last month in the aftermath of last December’s Exercise Cathal. The ‘role play’ scenario conducted by State agencies focused on what might happen in the event of a major and prolonged outage of gas interconnectors, requiring a six-month repair time during winter months.
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High-level recommendations on safeguarding against such a scenario are being prepared by the Department of the Environment. The briefing presentation, containing several recommendations, was obtained under Freedom of Information.
It reported that key industry sectors – including pharma; dairy and food; IT and technology and med tech – have only about one- to three-day power backup supply, and most sites require further investment. A sustained gas backup is not considered viable, so alternatives would require significant amounts of oil.
“Most company Business Continuity Plans would entail a controlled reduction of production to near zero, with a sustained ceasing of production likely in a gas outage scenario,” the document said.
Eighty per cent of gas consumed in Ireland arrives via the unidirectional interconnector from the UK, and 20 per cent from the Corrib gas field off Co Mayo. Of that total supply, 65 per cent is consumed by power stations, 23 per cent by non-residential customers including industry and the remainder by households.
Ireland has a high dependence on gas supply, using it to generate about 50 per cent of electricity demand in a given year. Most of these plants are required to have emergency diesel reserves as a substitute.
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In sequencing a hypothetical outage, the document shows that largest users would be cut off first, so power plants would have to switch over to oil “as soon as feasible”. There would be an emphasis on renewables, mainly wind, contributing as much as possible to electricity generation.
Next, it said, would be heavy corporate gas users. “In this scenario, Corrib, which supplies around 20 per cent of national gas supplies, is used to service ‘protected’ customers, which includes approximately 690,000 households that are gas users,” the presentation set out.
“Corrib supplies would also be used to maintain gas supplies to small business/light commercial business.”
For larger gas users, comprising about 300 sites, 50 have a protected status that would allow for maintained gas supply, including hospitals, healthcare facilities, prisons, various Government locations and the oil refinery.
The remaining 250 sites would be cut off.
Exercise Cathal highlighted which of these sectors were “prominent”, including “a sizeable number of pharmaceutical plants and dozens of production facilities in relation to food/dairy”.
“Essentially some high-profile corporate entities with significant sites may have to cease production,” it said, noting their limited alternatives to gas.
It said a “lack of visibility” into corporate business continuity plans could be addressed through the Large Industry Energy Users Network, with dedicated engagements around emergency planning and possible site visits to some of the large corporates.
