Broker forecasts ECB rate cut

Irish credit growth continues to slow, with figures falling in six of the last eight months, and indications that consumer spending is slowing down. Bloxham Stockbrokers says the Government's special savings incentive scheme might be seen as enhancing this trend.

However, it argues that the move to lower credit growth may be undermined by pressure on the European Central Bank to reduce interest rates. While the broker accepts there are arguments against the bank cutting rates at this time, despite public clamour, it forecasts that Wim Duisenberg and colleagues will be forced to act, probably as early as next month, by cutting rates by 25 basis points.

Bloxham sees at least one further rate cut before the end of the year - a stance by no means universal in the market - which will serve to keep Irish credit growth in the high teens, far ahead of that of other EU states.