Slump in demand for Covid medications behind fall in Irish pharma exports

The collapse in demand for Covid vaccines and medications has been identified as the factor behind the sharp fall in Irish pharmaceutical exports in the first half of the year.

Figures from Pfizer, which was the major provider of Covid vaccines into the European Union market, show that demand for vaccines and tablets to treat the virus have fallen dramatically.

The most recent data from the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show there has been an 18 per cent decline in the export of medical and pharmaceutical products from Ireland in the first five months of the year. The €5.56 billion fall-off in export value of pharmaceutical products dwarfs the overall €4.8 billion decline in all Irish exports over the same period, according to the CSO figures.

Analysts have been reluctant to speculate on the cause for the collapse in pharmaceutical exports, but the Pfizer disclosure in their second-quarter figures makes it clear that there has been a dramatic fall in demand for Covid medications.

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Quarterly sales of Comirnaty, the vaccine marketed by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, slumped 83 per cent to $1.49 billion in the three months to the end of June, the company said. While that was in line with the expectations of industry analysts, sales of the company’s antiviral medication, Paxlovid, were down 98 per cent from a year prior.

At $143 million for the three months, Paxlovid sales were far below Wall Street’s expectations for $843 million.

Ireland has played a central role in the production of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine. The company’s Grange Castle plant is one of a handful globally manufacturing the shot’s mRNA drug substance, the essential active ingredient for the vaccine.

Pfizer invested €40 million in the west Dublin biologics plant during the pandemic to allow it to become a critical part of the company’s Covid vaccine supply chain.

Ireland also plays a central role in the production of Pfizer’s Covid antiviral medicine Paxlovid. The active pharmaceutical ingredient for the medicine is produced at Pfizer’s Ringaskiddy plant in Cork, while it is finished at the group’s tableting plant in Newbridge, Co Kildare.

Industry sources in Ireland note that there has been no other factor that could credibly lead to the sharp fall in pharmaceutical exports, with none of Ireland’s many pharmaceutical manufacturing plants going offline or suffering catastrophic supply chain issues.

Pfizer has warned that it has little clarity right now on future demand for its Covid products.

Speaking on a conference call, Pfizer chief executive Albert Bourla said: “We expect a new Covid-19 wave to start in the US this fall, and this expectation is supported by the increase in infection rates we are already seeing.”

He said the company will have much more clarity and certainty regarding the future performance of Covid medicines by the end of September. “This is because we expect the vaccination and treatment rates from the upcoming respiratory disease season to be a reliable predictor of trends in subsequent years.”

But the company warned that, “given the uncertainty”, it was also preparing to adjust its cost base if necessary “to align with various future Covid-19 disease revenue scenarios”.

Pfizer announced in May that it had agreed an extended Covid vaccine supply deal with the EU for the next four years, albeit at lower levels of supply.