Do the latest Covid-19 restrictions mean your office will stay shut?

If you are one of the tens of thousands still working from home ,when might you see the inside of your office again?

Quite possibly not for a while – and for many well beyond the September 13th date when the new restrictions are due to end.

Businesses which had been planning to gradually reopen offices have been left confused by the Government’s announcement on Tuesday.

The official statement of the new restrictions said: “Unless it is absolutely essential for an employee to attend in person, they should work from home.”

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But at the press conference the Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, reading from a script, said that businesses “should continue to facilitate remote working where possible”.

The first statement suggested a strong obligation on companies to keep people working from home, unless they really need to be in the office.

The second indicates that companies should continue to allow employees to work from home, but would leave the way open for office working for those who want to, or whose employers want them to attend.

The first reads like strong guidance, the second open to interpretation and what a company wants to do.

Here are the key points in the debate on whether offices are likely to reopen this autumn.

Business reaction

At a time when many companies were starting to move people back into offices, the latest guidelines have left them with a decision to make, particularly as it is unclear what will happen on September 13th, when the current guidance is due to run out.

Do they continue, stay where they are – in some cases half way through a plan to return people to the office – or reverse course and go back to everyone who can at all working from home?

For now, most who have reopened seem to be keeping their offices open, but encouraging many staff to work from home where they can.

In some cases this will mean that people who had returned to the office will be returning to the back bedroom or the kitchen table. In others companies, plans for a September return will be put on hold, at least for a few weeks.

Jennifer Cashman of lawyers RDJ, who advises companies on HR policies, says that offices which have already opened are likely to remain open “as they have clearly concluded already that it is not possible for working from home to continue for various reasons”.

These are operating on reduced capacity and are following other measures outlined in the Return to Work Safety Protocol.

PWC, one of Ireland’s largest office employers, is keeping its offices open for those who can’t work from home, but everyone else will do so – meaning a gradual return of numbers to the office will be partially reversed.

A number of other large employers have stalled any plans to return more staff to offices in September, Public and civil servants will continue to work from home where they can up to September 13th at least.

And as has been reported,many of the bigger multinational services firms have indicated to staff that as of now they would expect many staff to continue working from home well into next year.

Government’s motivation

Tuesday’s announcement was driven in large part by the planned return of children to school later this month. A rise in cases was an obstacle to this – and in this context sources say that having packed public transport with school children and office workers returning to their workplaces at the same time was seen as a potentially big problem.

So a key motivation in asking people to continue to work from home is to leave public transport freer for schoolchildren as they make their return.

The authorities will hope that by the time office workers return the case numbers – and thus the risk – will be lower. But we just don’t know. It shows again that public transport is a key pinch point in returning the economy to anything like normal operation, particularly with capacity sharply cut due to Covid-19 spacing requirement.

The uncertain science

Those who are returning to office work are generally following strict protocols in terms of distancing, cleaning regimes, groups rotating in and out of the office and so on. Yet the reality is that the level of risk is still uncertain.

There are clear dangers to be avoided – larger numbers gathering in enclosed indoor meeting rooms, for example, or crowded canteens or lifts.

But there is still debate on whether, as well as being spread via droplets when people cough,sneeze or talk, the virus may also spread via smaller particles which longer in the air – so-called airborne transmission.

Companies are following return to work protocols, but every employer faces particular choices depending on their workforces and premises.

Private equity company Carlyle has told staff returning to its offices in London and elsewhere to avoid public transport if at all possible – and told those using public transport at the weekend that they must not come to the office for 14 days.

The uncertainties involved – and the impossibility of guarding against all the risks – are likely to lead many employers to take a softly softly approach to the office return.

Rise of choice

Covid-19 may well bring a fundamental change in working patterns. Many will in time return to the office but many, too, will continue to work from home at least some of the time.

This may be driven by companies looking to save money on officers as well as by employees trying to avoid endless long commutes, or just looking for more flexibility.

According to Cashman of RDJ for now many businesses still have most or all of their people working from home and intend to do so for the rest of this year and in some cases into next year.

But in addition to this , companies are increasingly looking at working from home as a permanent feature for some employees, at least for part of the week increasing queries on issues such as data protection and health and safety.

Those who have opened to some degree “are likely to take the view that where there are employees who, for a variety of reasons, wish to work from home, they will facilitate that where is it possible and appropriate to do so.” And then there is the key public transport issue.

According to Cashman : “ if there is anyone who uses public transport to get to work, and is unable to avail of any alternative means of travel, the advice is that any such people should work from home.”

Economic balance

Speaking to a number of senior businesspeople, it is clear that Covid-19 has led to step-change in their perception of home working . It can work in many cases and many are also now starting to think about the potential cost-saving opportunities as well in terms of office space.

However on the flip side there is also a recognition that staff not being together can also have disadvantages in terms of people working together on projects and on developing new ideas – and that remote working can bring particular challenges for newer and less experienced. employees.

There is also the wider economic cost of office staff not being in city centres. Footfall is way down – by around 50 per cent in Dublin city centre – and with a collapse in inward tourism restaurant, coffee shops and city centre retail stores are being hit hard.

Google mobility data shows Dublin city centre suffering well above average falls in activity levels, with a decline of 39 per cent in visits to what it defines as retail and recreation settings – shopping centres, restaurants, coffee shops, cinemas and so on.

This compares to a 27 per cent fall nationwide.

“City and town centre businesses are suffering greatly due to the continued remote working of office staff,” according to a comment by IBEC in the wake of Tuesday’s announcement. “ It is vital for the future of these businesses and the viability of our city and town centre infrastructure, that Government provides a clear roadmap post-September 13th for more workers to return to offices.”

However as of now it is not clear whether such a roadmap for a more widespread return to workplace is part of the Government plan. Your office desk may remain empty for a good while yet.