Greek referendum is the last roll of the dice for Tsipras

Alexis Tsipras is gambling his political future as Greece's prime minister on a hastily called referendum that could all too easily backfire.

The legitimacy or otherwise of Sunday’s vote on a failed Greek bailout proposal has divided constitutional experts and left bureaucrats rushing to deal with the logistics of holding the country’s first plebiscite in more than 40 years.

Some Greek voters are puzzled and confused. "Greece is holding a referendum on a proposal that no longer exists for a bad programme that by then will have expired," said Yannos, a business consultant who declined to give his second name. "It doesn't make sense."

Tsipras has urged a No vote to endorse his left-wing government’s rejection of “blackmail” by the country’s creditors in seeking to apply further harsh austerity measures in return for a €15.3 billion bailout. At the same time, he has said he would respect a Yes result.

One opinion poll, conducted before the referendum was announced and published at the weekend, suggested that 57 per cent of Greeks were prepared to put up with more economic pain as the price of rescuing the economy and staying in the euro.

With default looming on a loan payment to the International Monetary Fund and capital controls imposed this week, patience with the left-wing Syriza government is starting to run out. "There's a sense even among its supporters that the government has lost control of the situation," said Angeliki, an importer of hotel equipment.

Fear and anger

A mood of rising fear and anger swept the country over the weekend as bank cash machines were emptied and long lines of vehicles formed outside petrol ­stations.

“These are extreme conditions that are likely to make anxious voters rally behind the opposition pro-Europe parties urging a Yes,” said a pollster who declined to be named.

Aris Hatzis, an Athens university professor and political commentator, argued that Tsipras miscalculated by rejecting the latest bailout offer on Friday at a critical stage of the negotiations, with creditors poised to make concessions that could have swung his ruling Syriza party behind the deal.

“After weeks of intense pressure from both the creditors and his own party, he suddenly went over the edge . . . He followed his left-wing instincts. He acted impetuously,” Hatzis said.

The consequences could be disastrous for the 40-year-old prime minister. If the government loses the vote even by a small margin, Tsipras would be obliged to resign as premier and call a general election.

The alternative would be for the premier to lead negotiations on forming a coalition government with pro-reform parties, with a mandate to rebuild relations with EU partners and ensure that Greece can remain in the euro.

In that case, Tsipras would run the risk of being replaced as prime minister by a prominent non-political figure from Greek public life. However, some observers believe the government has a chance of pulling off a narrow victory. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2015