Elan drugs could make $5bn

Drugs under development by Irish biotech group Elan and its partner Wyeth could account for almost half a $10 billion (€8.4 billion) Alzheimer's disease market by 2015, according to a new forecast.

The projection, published yesterday by Ian Hunter, pharmaceuticals analyst at Goodbody stockbroker, says the Elan/ Wyeth partnership is currently testing two separate drugs that could become "blockbuster" treatments for the disease.

The companies have started dosing patients in phase two trials of one drug - AAB-001 - in recent weeks and have another - ACC-001 - in phase one trials.

Dr Hunter says AAB-001 could be on the market by 2009, with sales rising from an initial $414 million to more than $1 billion three years later and $2.73 billion by 2015.

The second drug could be on sale from 2010 with sales of nearly $2.2 billion five years later.

Both drugs are designed to dissolve plaque, which is associated with Alzheimer's patients, using different approaches.

If the projections are realised, the figures will exceed the expected peak revenue for Elan's multiple sclerosis drug, Tysabri, which Elan and partner Biogen hope to return to the market following a review by the US regulator, the Food and Drug Administration, next month.

Dr Hunter says the global population over the age of 65 is likely to almost double to 1.2 billion people worldwide by 2015.

"This equates with the number of Alzheimer's sufferers rising from current levels of 18 million to 35.4 million by 2015 and 46.1 million by 2020.

Goodbody says the four drugs currently on the market merely alleviate the symptoms of the disease rather than providing a cure.

Nevertheless, they have developed a $3 billion industry boasting compound annual growth rates of 40 per cent over the last six years.

Dr Hunter expects newer drugs, with their increased focus on cure rather than disease management, to dominate the sector in the years ahead.

While there are around 130 drugs designed to tackle the disease in various stages of development, Dr Hunter says that seven show the greatest potential in a lucrative market that the analyst believes will be big enough to support a number of blockbuster treatments.