Oil prices dip ahead of looming ECB bond buying programme

Oil prices dipped early on Thursday, ahead of an expected announcement of a bond-buying programme by the European Central Bank (ECB) that could push the dollar to new highs and put downward pressure on commodities.

The ECB’s Executive Board has proposed a programme that would enable it to buy €50 billion in bonds a month starting in March, a euro zone source said. The expected stimulus programme has pressured the euro and sent the dollar, seen as a safe haven, soaring.

A firmer dollar, buoyed by an expected US interest rate hike and an American economy that is growing while Europe and Asia slow, dents demand for commodities priced in the greenback by making them expensive for holders of other currencies.

Oil prices have already more than halved since June last year due to oversupply, partly caused by soaring US output.

Brent crude futures were trading at $48.86 per barrel at 0353 GMT, down 17 cents since their last settlement. US WTI crude was down 32 cents at $47.46 a barrel.

Khalid Al-Falih, chief executive of Saudi Aramco said during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that his only real surprise about the low oil prices was that people were surprised about it.

Commerzbank said it expected the oil price to fall initially towards the low of the economic and financial crisis in February 2009 at nearly $40 per barrel.

“The USA now produces a good 9 million barrels of crude oil per day, the largest volume in 28 years ... Never before were stocks in the US as ample at this time of the year,” it said.

A sector that can profit from cheap oil is the tanker business that benefits from lower ship fuel prices, which have dropped from a daily average of around $60,000 before June 2014 to under $27,000 to operate a super-tanker (VLCC) now, as well as increased orders to use its vessels for storage.

“The steep contango of the forward crude oil market is rightly considered to be a very supportive development for the short-term tonnage demand,” brokerage Marex Spectron said.

Brent crude prices for delivery this March are $10 a barrel cheaper than those for March 2016, making it attractive to buy oil now and put it into storage for sale later.

Reuters