An Irish Diary

Euro zone inflation rate due plus Brexit briefing at IIEA

Your business this week: results, indicators and meetings

Lisa Chambers: she will have a challenge summarising a dynamic British political landscape with its incessant twists and turns

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Mark Hilliard
Sun Dec 16 2018 - 18:05

MONDAY

Indicators: euro zone inflation (Nov); UK industrial trends orders (Dec); US housing market index (Dec).

TUESDAY

Results: FedEx.

Indicators: German current conditions, business climate and expectations (Dec); US housing starts (Nov).

WEDNESDAY

Indicators: euro zone construction output (Oct); UK retail price index, PPI input and output, inflation (Nov); German PPI (Nov); US economic projections.

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Meetings: US Fed interest rate decision.

THURSDAY

Results: Nike.

Indicators: Irish overseas travel (Nov); UK retail sales (Nov), US home sales (Nov).

Meetings: Bank of England interest rate decision; IIEA Young Professionals Network review of 2018 event (IIEA, North Great George's Street, Dublin 1).

Brexit briefing

As businesses enter a Christmas period somewhat lacking in festive cheer given the Brexit-related uncertainty that awaits them in the new year, it is challenging to consider how to sum up the fiasco to date.

The task befalls Fianna Fáil’s Brexit spokeswoman Lisa Chambers, one of a number of speakers engaged by the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA)on Thursday to address various issues that helped shape 2018.

The Young Professionals Network event will also grapple with the presidential election, the referendum on the Eighth Amendment and even US foreign policy, but the focus will no doubt remain tightly fixed on the impending UK departure.

As with any observer of the Westminster quagmire, Ms Chambers will have a challenge summarising a dynamic political landscape with its incessant twists and turns. The lack of an acceptable departure deal, the cancellation of a parliamentary vote with its promise of resounding defeat, and a subsequent leadership challenge against Theresa May are among just the most recent developments.

All the while preparations are ongoing for how Ireland and its business sector can meet the challenges of a no-deal departure. Such a scenario could almost halve economic growth over the coming year, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) warned last week, a sobering prospect for a State used to celebrating its relatively recent re-emergence from economic gloom.

A no-deal scenario, the ESRI noted, and a subsequent adoption of World Trade Organisation rules would be expected to reduce growth from about 4.2 per cent to 2.6 per cent.

Tourism Data

Fáilte Ireland, the tourism authority, has said it believes new records on visitor numbers and corresponding financial benefits will be set in 2019 despite the effects of Brexit.

Since the UK’s vote to leave the EU in 2016, the story of decreasing visitor numbers from across the Irish Sea has been a familiar one: so too, however, has the rise in those from further afield, notably the United States.

On Thursday, Central Statistics Office (CSO) figures for November are likely to continue the trend experienced throughout 2018.

In October, trips here by residents of Great Britain actually increased 0.1 per cent to 322,700, but that marginal growth rate compares to 5.4 per cent from residents of other European countries (to 328,600) and by 20.2 per cent from the US and Canada (to 228,900).

At a recent conference setting out its strategy for the year ahead, Fáilte Ireland said growth in the sector is likely to increase next year despite the gloom surrounding Brexit.

Chief executive Paul Kelly said a weaker British pound would make Ireland more expensive and, at the same time, the UK cheaper for visitors. Brexit will be expected to cost the industry about €390 million next year but the reality, as with all areas of business, will depend on the detail of the UK’s eventual departure.

FRIDAY

Indicators: Irish wholesale prices (Nov); euro zone consumer confidence flash (Dec); UK consumer confidence (Dec), public sector net borrowing (Nov), business investment (Q3), GDP (Q3); German consumer confidence (Jan); US core PCE price index (Nov), corporate profits (Q3), GDP (Q3), personal income and spending (Nov), durable goods orders (Nov).

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