Cantillon: Be careful counting on jobs

The Government this morning hosts a briefing on its Action Plan for Jobs. If you think you've heard that before, it's because you have. Only yesterday, at an event to mark National Employment Week, Taoiseach Enda Kenny said the intention was to create 50,000 jobs this year, and again in 2015.

He held out the prospect of full employment by 2020 – this despite the fact that huge numbers of those out of work can never find jobs again in the construction sector that used employ them and that long-term unemployment among the under-25s is now at an OECD high if you discount Greece. It's an ambitious goal.

Both Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore and Minister for Enterprise Richard Bruton will be on hand alongside Kenny.

If some of the more sweeping statements made this week are to be believed, they have much to be cheerful about.

The Irish Hotels Federation succumbed to the good news vibe, with incoming president Stephen McNally promising up to 74,000 new jobs by 2020. To put that into context, the figure amounts to more than a third of the numbers it says are currently employed in the sector, following the 23,000 jobs it says have been added in the past three years.

A separate report from the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland on the same day forecast over 30,000 new jobs in construction – a jump of more than 20 per cent – on the back of a 30 per cent increase in output in the construction sector by 2018.

The Irish Wind Energy Association and industry giant Siemens last week produced a study showing that the sector had the potential to generate up to 35,000 jobs.

And then there was Bruton, hailing the 1,850 jobs that "will be created" by 122 high-potential start-up companies supported by Enterprise Ireland.

Hang on. Yes, that’s right, “high potential start-up”. In other words, cutting-edge companies that could deliver on the 10-15 jobs per company target or even better it, but could just as likely fail altogether. The other numbers bandied about above also come with enough qualifiers to render them effectively meaningless as any proper guide.

With jobs, as with Government promises, it pays to be careful with what you count.