Flagship drug unlikely to bridge gap until new product

ANALYSIS:THE FIGURES from last year were upbeat, if relatively unsurprising. But it is the ongoing strategic review that overshadows everything else at Irish drug developer Elan these days.

Despite cutbacks in its cost base, Elan is likely to run out of money before the key Alzheimer’s programme delivers concrete results, even if everything goes well in clinical trials. Any hope sales of multiple sclerosis Tysabri sales would bridge the gap have dimmed.

In any event, as chief executive Kelly Martin intimated yesterday, Elan does not have the capacity to build the commercial infrastructure necessary for a major Alzheimer’s drug roll-out. The failure of potential purchasers of its drug delivery business EDT to close that deal last year has also increased pressure. And, in the distance, $1.15 billion in debt repayments in late 2011 looms.

The company has commissioned Citigroup to examine all options and expects it to report back by mid-April. Martin and chairman Kyran McLaughlin have made clear their preference for selling a stake of up to 25 per cent to a global pharma player – allowing Elan to reduce debt, improve liquidity and give it access to that commercial infrastructure.

In the meantime, Tysabri remains the focus for the return to profitability. Five cases of PML in the second half of last year have undermined confidence and the pace of new patient registration has slowed. The company says that slowdown has now stabilised but acknowledged there has yet to be an appreciable recovery.

Apart from progressing the company’s key Alzheimer’s programme, Elan president Carlos Paya has made the reinvigoration of Tysabri sales a focus for this year. That will involve marshalling the growing information available to the company on early diagnosis and successful management of PML cases, and presenting it to doctors, patients and the market.

In the background, former Abbott Laboratories executive Jack Schuler is stirring dissent. Though he holds just over 1 per cent of the equity, his high-profile campaign is a distraction the company does not need.