Investors await decision on stock price

Investor interest in the Aer Lingus flotation has taken brokers by surprise.

With the Eircom fiasco still fresh in the minds of many small investors and the volatile nature of airline industry stocks, it had been expected that there would be some reticence among potential investors in parting with their money.

The €10,000 minimum threshold for individual investors was set with a view to ensuring that investors without sufficient financial resources would not be exposed to stock market volatility.

As it happens, investors appear to have been flush with cash and only too happy to take a punt on the flotation of the national airline. Brokers say that average investments have been in excess of €20,000.

Much of the money is coming from people who are not regular dabblers in the stock market, with one broker estimated that as many as one in five applicants was not a regular client.

Investors remain in the dark on the exact number of shares they will receive. This will depend in part upon the price at which the offering will be set. It will also be determined by any scaling back in the event of the offer being oversubscribed.

The flotation prospectus indicated that the price would be somewhere in the range of €2.10 to €2.70 a share.

It had been anticipated that the eventual price would be at the lower end of this range but the strong investor interest will serve to increase the price at which the State and its advisers are likely to set the final price.

However, with a general election on the horizon and the experience of Eircom behind them, the Government will be keen to ensure that the eventual price will encourage the development of an orderly and liquid market in the shares after flotation.

Figures from the eight stockbrokers through whom individuals have been applying for shares in the airline will be collated over the next few days. Interest from institutional shareholders will also be assessed. The institutions do not have to finalise their bids for stock until the close of business next Tuesday.

There is no set percentage of shares reserved for retail investors, with the co-ordinators of the offer weighing up the offers from institutional investors as well.

A final price will be decided on Tuesday evening and will be advertised in The Irish Times, and other newspapers, as well as on the Aer Lingus and Irish Stock Exchange websites on Wednesday.

A "grey" market in the shares will commence at that stage but ordinary investors will not be able to trade until they have received their shares.

The airline will float formally on October 2nd on both the Irish and London stock exchanges.

Shareholders who keep their Aer Lingus shares for a full year after flotation will receive a bonus share for every 20 shares they hold. In the event that the offer is oversubscribed, the global co-ordinators behind the flotation process have the right to scale back or reject share applications.