Long-term cheer for tourism sector

It has truly been an annus horribilis for the tourism industry this year. Having struggled through a spring/summer season undermined by the foot-and- mouth scare, it now faces a substantial fall-off in lucrative late-year business following the terrorist attacks in the US and the bombing of Afghanistan.

Davy, in a report on the transport and tourism sector, says the scale of the slump this year will be 10 per cent.

However, Davy is confident the long-term prognosis for the industry remains good. The World Tourism Organisation still sees a trebling in growth between now and 2020. The broker has, not surprisingly, downgraded earnings this year and next for three of the four listed transport and tourism companies on the Dublin market - the exception being Ryanair, for which it is broker.

Of the two hotel groups, Davy is more upbeat on the outlook for its client Jurys Doyle as a defensive play, although rival Goodbody is cautious on short-term prospects for advance. For Gresham, however, Davy sees little upside.