Long-term jobless up by 25,000, says CSO

THE RANKS of the long-term unemployed swelled by almost 25,000 people in the past year, while the overall unemployment rate more than doubled to 12 per cent.

During the second three months of the year, some 57,300 people were in long-term unemployment compared to 33,200 in the same period in 2008, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO). Long-term unemployment is defined in terms of those seeking work for more than a year.

This represents an increase in the long-term unemployment rate from 1.5 per cent to 2.6 per cent in 12 months – the highest rate since the first quarter of 1999.

The CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey, published yesterday, also shows that the total number of people out of work was 264,600 in the second quarter of the year – an annual increase of almost 109 per cent.

Some 1.9 million people were in work, a decline of 8.2 per cent in the year to the end of June.

This compares with an annual fall in employment of 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter and a decline of 0.1 per cent in the year to the second quarter of 2008.

The largest decline in employment was recorded in the construction sector, where the numbers at work fell by 86,000, or 35.6 per cent, over the year.

The next largest annual decreases came in wholesale and retail trade (down 29,600) and industry (down 29,000).

A gender breakdown shows that the number of jobless men rose by 102,700 (122 per cent) in the year, with the increase among women at 35,100 (82.4 per cent).

When the figures were seasonally adjusted, the CSO said the male and female unemployment rates stood at 14.8 per cent and 7.8 per cent respectively.

Employment rates fell across all age groups, but were particularly pronounced in the 20-24 age bracket, which showed an 11.5 per cent decrease over the year to the end of June. The number of non-Irish nationals in work fell by almost 18 per cent over the year.

On the long-term unemployment rate of 2.6 per cent, Kieran Walsh, senior statistician at the CSO, noted that when similar rates were last recorded in the late 1990s, they accounted for almost half of overall unemployment.

However, “we’re coming from a very, very low level of long-term unemployment and a very sharp increase in short-term unemployment,” he said.

“So the question is: how much of that short-term unemployment translates into long-term unemployment?”

Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Bloxham stockbrokers, said the latest Quarterly Household Survey data made “bleak reading”.

“These latest figures are a stark reminder of the hardship and pain many private-sector workers have endured over the past 12 months, and things are going to get worse before they get better,” said Mr McQuaid.

Nonetheless, he added that while the rate of unemployment would continue to rise over the next year, the likelihood was that the rate of increase would start to moderate over the coming quarters.