McCreevy set to lose in Budget

There are times when Charlie McCreevy must wish he could throw in the towel and find a less contentious post in the Government. Here he is facing into his fourth Budget, probably the last before a general election, armed with the largest Exchequer surplus in the history of the State. If someone had outlined such a scenario when he took up the reins as Minister for Finance, he would have seen it as the ideal way to produce a give-away Budget and ease the return of the present administration after an election. Now, he cannot win.

All the talk this week has been of how Mr McCreevy will be unable to deliver on some of the issues most sought after by that very electorate. In particular, his bruising encounter on individualisation ensures that tax relief on the cost of childcare is likely to be sacrificed in favour of a more general and less effective rise in child benefit.

Worse, the sudden rise of inflation to more than double the level anticipated when setting wage rates in the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness means that whatever latitude he has in the Budget must be geared at easing workers' discontent rather than giving them a welcome treat. He must wonder how, if he cannot please all the people when he has so much cash at his disposal, he can hope to keep them happy when our current economic cycle turns.