Will UTV make a decent show of its southern content?

Irish people watch Irish-made television. We might hate it sometimes, but if there is one thing audience ratings prove time and time again, it is that we will watch almost anything that ticks the box marked national identity. Operation Transformation. At Your Service. Jigs & Wigs. These RTÉ shows have turned weight loss, hotel makeovers and parental commitment to Irish dancing into big hits.

This means the question of how much programming the new UTV Republic of Ireland television channel plans to make, rather than acquire, is not an academic one. Its level of output will be a reflection of its commercial ambition, just as it is for TV3. So far, UTV has made only one commitment and that is to put out a one-hour "news, current affairs and community" programme four nights a week, from Monday to Thursday, at 10pm.

Belfast-based UTV Media plc is hiring a Dublin-based channel controller and head of news, both of whom will have a hand in shaping this flagship news show alongside managing director of television Michael Wilson. Whoever its main presenters turn out to be – and chief executive John McCann says he is not interested in poaching expensive "star" broadcasters – they will have the daunting task of setting the tone for the channel. Well, it will either be down to them or the continuity announcer.

The news hour, which will be "similar to UTV Live Tonight",  will have to be heavyweight enough to distract viewers and Government ministers alike from Montrose's more familiar studios, yet also novel enough to lure in an audience that feels the Prime Time formula is not for them. The cohort that is minded to watch TV3's Tonight with Vincent Browne, but tends to go to bed before he comes on, is another potential target.

There will be other programming, mostly of the light factual variety, with the company's successful licence application suggesting it will make the equivalent of Lesser Spotted Ulster, Ultimate Ulster and Wild About Ulster.

Otherwise, we can probably guess more about what UTV’s “southern service” won’t do, than what it will. What it won’t do is its own drama. The “northern service” model is to concentrate on news, current affairs and what McCann calls “the bits and pieces” that make a channel feel more local, rather than sink money into expensive productions that, even if popular, still find it difficult to recoup their original investment.

It's a sensibly cost-focused position, but it doesn't exactly dazzle at a time when TV3 is busy commissioning a 104-episode a year soap opera and when Northern Ireland Screen is doing its best to turn UTV's home region into a production hotbed. Everything from HBO fantasy- and-politics epic Game of Thrones to BBC Two's critically-acclaimed police series Line of Duty has made Belfast their filming location of choice, but UTV is not a player in the drama export market either.

It doesn't believe it matters. There will, after all, be a steady supply of witty put-downs and shouty showdowns on the channel courtesy of its exclusive ITV Studios programming, led by Coronation Street and Emmerdale, and also including The Jeremy Kyle Show, Loose Women and winter amusement I'm a Celebrity... Get Me Out of Here! These ITV shows will be "at the heart of the schedule" in commercial terms, at least.

The media group, which this week described a recovery in Irish television advertising as “encouraging”, hasn’t shared specific targets for either audience share or advertising income, but it has hinted that it would like to overtake TV3.

Some industry sources say it will fall short of this, gaining an audience share in the high single-digits instead, while TV3 itself has gone on the counter-attack.

Comparing it to the temporary advance of Sky News Ireland, Ballymount's commercial director Pat Kiely told Marketing.ie that UTV's venture south of the border is "to all intents and purposes" an opt-out channel, by which he means he thinks it's simply a way to sell more advertising in the Republic off the back of a barely-altered schedule.

Then there is the potentially crucial matter of UTV’s negotiations with Sky to win a prominent spot on its electronic programme guide. Broadcasting the right content might be important, but it will mean little if the channel is not available and easily accessible in the maximum number of homes.

These are industry concerns, however. Channel-flickers testing out the new station next year are likely to have a different set of questions, such as: is that the woman who used to be on RTÉ’s weekend bulletins? Surely Steve McDonald isn’t getting married again? And where is Julian?