Oil: it's running low

Some blame the thirsty Asian giants of China and India

Some blame the thirsty Asian giants of China and India. The rapid growth in their economies have sharply increased demand for oil. In particular, transport's share of each state's oil consumption has grown rapidly. As ordinary citizens become wealthy enough to buy a car, they happily abandon the bicycle and public transport.

However, despite the rapid growth in consumption and the enormous population, China will remain below 8 per cent of total world oil consumption this year. Others blame the Americans and their SUVs. The US consumes 25 per cent of world oil, despite possessing only 3 per cent of the world's proven reserves. What's more, attempts to decrease average fuel consumption have clearly failed, largely due to the rapid growth in SUVs. Average fuel consumption per vehicle there is now at a 20 year high.

Still others think the panic is misconceived and high prices will actually increase the amount of oil rather than lessen it, making it economically viable to open up oil fields previously regarded as to expensive to drill.

Regardless of the reasons, oil prices are flying high and there is clearly a strong case for governments to start weaning their economies off oil. But how?

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Public transport is vitally important, but it will never dislodge the car. For the world's aspiring billions, it is the ultimate symbol of status and freedom, even if it perpetuates mankind's addiction to oil.

That points to more practical ways to tackle our dependency: increasing efficiency and boosting alternative fuels. One way to cut consumption would be for Americans to take responsibility for their massive usage and raise their pitifully low petrol taxes. But what are the chances of a Texan President with strong oil connections doing that?

However, higher petrol prices are having one beneficial consequence already, boosting innovations such as hybrid, pioneered by Toyota, which is now making its way on to the market. Hybrid cars use conventional petrol engines, but boost overall fuel economy through the use of a small electric motor at low speeds, as well as clever electronics that capture the energy generated in braking. While several manufacturers dismissed the idea as a distraction from the real search for a solution, most are now set to introduce hybrid models in the coming years, largely to serve a US market where more fuel-efficient diesel engines have failed to make their way into anything but trucks.

However, some stark choices have to be faced. In recent interviews Larry Burns, General Motors' head of research said that the internal combustion engine will at best become 25 per cent more efficient over time, and hybrids may save a similar amount, but that the increased petrol consumption that comes with economic growth may wipe out these gains.

Some firms are turning towards biofuels, typically made from renewable resources such as agricultural crops or waste. Car companies are equipping vehicles with "flex-fuel" capability, so they can run on either petrol or ethanol blends.

These blended alternatives may eventually help check OPEC's pricing power at the margin, but none is likely to make a real dent in oil consumption, with estimates suggesting it will account for no more than 4 per cent of worldwide transport-fuel consumption.

The emerging combination of hydrogen fuel and fuel-cell engines may go further. Fuel cells are essentially portable generators that combine hydrogen fuel and oxygen from the air to make electricity that can power anything from a laptop to a home or a car. The hydrogen can be made from any primary energy source, be it fossil fuels or wind energy. And because hydrogen can be made anywhere by anybody, the oil companies lose their cartel.

Fuel cells will not come overnight, but the car industry is already pouring billions of dollars into developing them. Some firms claim they will have cars fuel cells in commercial use in one million cars by 2010 - provided the hydrogen filling stations are in place. Will the oil industry rise to the challenge?

The costs involved are relatively low compared to the everyday costs faced by the industry. But for them, the concern is that hydrogen can be produced not only by oil but also from other fossil fuels, and even to a smaller degree, solar power. Why should they come to the aid of the car firms and in turn do themselves out of their controlling position? The car firms can't really invest billions on fuel cells if people can't access the fuel.

So which is the way to go? Fuel cells seem to be the choice of the car giants for now. As for the oil giants, they still reckon that all of these energy sources will only ever be marginal players.

The internal combustion engine was first patented by the Dutch physicist Christian Huygens about 1680. The world desperately needs someone to come up with something new.