Why is Northern Ireland gearing up for its second Assembly election in less than a year?

So there’s to be another election in Northern Ireland?

That’s the legal position. Voters in Northern Ireland are getting an extra “present” this year, an Assembly election. The most likely date is December 15th, so just 10 days before Christmas. Expect canvassers rather than carolers, polls rather than office parties, and lots of headlines about the ‘nightmare’ before Christmas.

Hang on, didn’t Northern Ireland just have an election?

You’ve been paying attention. It was on May 5th, less than six months ago, and delivered a historic result; Sinn Féin won the greatest number of seats and, with it, the right to the role of first minister – the first time in Northern Ireland’s history that a nationalist has held such a position. The other big success story was Alliance – the largest of the parties which does not designate itself as either unionist or nationalist – which more than doubled its representation to 17 seats.

So how come they’re doing again?

Well, there may have been an election in May, but there has been no Assembly. Northern Ireland’s political institutions were set up under the Belfast Agreement to ensure power was shared between unionists and nationalists, and therefore need the support of a majority in both groups to function. The DUP – the largest unionist party and, until the May election, the largest party overall and the one which held the position of first minister – has refused to go back into the institutions as part of its protest against the Northern Ireland Protocol, which its politicians oppose because they feel it has undermined their constitutional and economic position as part of the UK. Without the agreement of the DUP as the largest unionist party, no Assembly business can take place, and so the North has effectively been in political stasis for the past six months. The failure to form an Assembly also set the clock ticking on a 24-week deadline. That deadline ran out on Friday – at one minute past midnight, to be precise – and with the Assembly still not reinstated, legally the Northern Secretary is obliged to call an election.

What happens next?

The Northern Secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, has to call that election; he declined to do so on Friday, saying instead that would provide an update next week. The law requires it to take place within 12 weeks and it is understood there is no desire for an election campaign that would drag on over the Christmas period, and Mr Heaton-Harris has previously indicated December 15th was the likely date. In the meantime, the North remains without a government and it also loses the caretaker ministers who have been able to take some decisions since May, leaving senior civil servants in charge – as was the case during the Assembly’s last lengthy period of suspension, from 2017-20.

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So the election will solve all this?

Probably not. To quote the Alliance leader Naomi Long, who angrily addressed reporters in the Great Hall at Parliament Buildings after that last-minute attempt to restore the Assembly failed this week: “We know elections in Northern Ireland do not solve problems, they deepen the crisis.” The likelihood is that this fresh election will return a result broadly similar to the last and, if the DUP’s vote goes up, will allow it to argue it has an increased mandate for staying out of the Assembly – so it will be under no pressure to change its stance. Similarly, the impact of what looks almost certain to be a toxic election campaign will serve only to reinforce existing divisions; canvassing in winter weather for an election that neither the parties nor the people in Northern Ireland want will do nothing to improve the mood, particularly when it holds out no prospect of solving the crisis. If there is to be a breakthrough on the protocol, it will come from London and Brussels, not Belfast; it is entirely possible that a fresh election will simply engender a refreshed stalemate.