Taoiseach Brian Cowen has ruled out any question of stepping down as leader of Fianna Fáil if the party fares as badly in the European and local elections as a poll in today's Irish Timesindicates.
Speaking on the campaign trial in Killarney this morning, Mr Cowen said: “I’m in the business of leading the Government through the most difficult times that we have seen in many decades, and we have determined to do what is necessary by the country.”
When pressed on the tenability of his position if the party incurs big losses in the elections, Mr Cowen said he would not consider his position. “There are a lot independent commentators suggesting that our policies are in the right direction, and we intend continuing with them”.
The latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows Fianna Fáil slipping to a record low, with no swing back to the party as some observers had predicted.
Fine Gael has also seen a dip in support since the last poll two weeks ago but the Labour Party has had a significant increase in the same period.
Speaking today, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny said: "It [the poll] reflects very accurately what I'm hearing round the country, that the people want change, and they're now growing in confidence with the ideas, and the plans, and the strategies that the Fine Gael party has put forward for the last 18 months to two years."
The poll suggests the momentum remains with Fine Gael and Labour in the run-up to the June 5th elections and Fianna Fáil is set for its worst-ever performance.
In the poll, when people were asked who they would vote for if there was a general election tomorrow, the adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Times poll on May 14th, were: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael, 36 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 23 per cent (up 3 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (down 1 point); Green Party, 3 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 10 per cent (up 1 point).
Asked if he could be faced with a backbench revolt by Fianna Fáil deputies worried over their seats, Mr Cowen ruled out any question of a heave against his leadership. “There aren’t maverick TDs in Fianna Fáil. The parliamentary party is supporting the thousands of volunteers up and down the country and they’re working hard for all our candidates.”
“We have seven days to go in this campaign and we have a positive campaign to push and that’s what we are doing.”
Asked about the party’s particularly poor showing in Dublin where the poll puts its support at 12 per cent, Mr Cowen the party’s activists in the capital were addressing the issue and pointed out that they had excellent candidates in each area which would, in effect, be mini-elections.
“We are going to put our case to the people and move on.” Asked if he would still be Taoiseach in 12 months' time, Mr Cowen replied: “Yes, I hope so.”
Minister of State Conor Lenihan this morning has defended the Taoiseach's position.
"The bottom line here is that he has only been in a year . . . we do need stability in government at the moment, we don't need uncertainty about the leadership of our own party or the Government or instability in the Government between ourselves and our Green coalition colleagues," Mr Lenihan said.
"I think we're doing a huge disservice to the public by having some kind of public bun fight over who is in charge and personality factors."
Referring to the Taoiseach's mandate, Mr Lenihan said Brian Cowen had been expected to be the party's next leader after Bertie Ahern. "While in a strictly legal sense, he hasn't the mandate of a general election behind him, he does have the mandate of the party."
Mr Lenihan, who is director of elections for the Dublin South constituency, said he was not surprised at the latest poll findings: "There's no doubting the fact that national issues come into play in this election, it's not a good time to be in Government, and I would say that if Labour or Fine Gael were in government together at the moment, they would have it twice as bad as we're having it," he said.
"Obviously it wouldn't be great news if we saw the kind of drop we experienced the last time, we would have thought the last local elections were the worst we ever experienced. If it gets worse than that, it's a big concern to us," the Minister said on RTÉ radio.
"The only thing I would caution about these polls . . . this is 171 different constituencies up and down the country, so you will get different results, and it's very hard for polls to capture that."
Labour leader Eamon Gilmore said it was time for Mr Cowen to accept responsibility for his role in creating Ireland's economic problems and stop blaming everyone else.
In a statement today, Mr Gilmore, who was campaigning in Mullingar, said: "He [Mr Cowen] was Minister for Finance when many of the key decisions were made; and he was Taoiseach, when the economy began to deteriorate at an alarming rate. Having initially ignored the warning signs all around him, he then made a series of botched attempts to turn the situation around.
Referring to a speech made by the Taoiseach last night, "in which he attempted to blame the Opposition", Mr Gilmore said the address was "entirely consistent with the pattern of denial that we have heard from Fianna Fáil over the past year.
"Everyone else is responsible for our economic problems - the bankers; the social partners, the international community and, most of all the Opposition parties."
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) in the latest poll compared with the last Irish Timespoll was: Fianna Fáil, 19 per cent (down 1 point); Fine Gael, 28 per cent (down 1 point); Labour, 17 per cent (up 2 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (no change); Green Party, 2 per cent (no change); Independents/ others, 7 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 19 per cent (down 1 point).
The Fianna Fáil core vote in Dublin is down to 12 per cent while Labour has moved into first place in the capital with 26 per cent, closely followed by Fine Gael on 24 per cent.
Fine Gael now has a commanding lead over Fianna Fáil across every region, age group and social category while Labour has pulled ahead of the main Government party in terms of the adjusted national vote.
The Green Party has remained stuck on 3 per cent of the national vote but the party will take some comfort from the fact that its vote in Dublin is a little higher than that. The Sinn Féin vote has dipped slightly since the last poll but it is still in a strong position to hold its ground in both the local and European elections.
There is some consolation for the Coalition in the fact that the satisfaction rating for the Government and the Taoiseach has risen a little over the past two weeks after plummeting to record lows in the last poll. The Government's rating is up 2 points to 12 per cent while Mr Cowen's is up 3 points to 21 per cent. Green Party leader John Gormley is also up 2 points to 27 per cent.
Still, a massive 84 per cent of the voters are dissatisfied with the performance of the Government with almost every category of voters equally unhappy. Fianna Fáil supporters have rallied since the last poll but a majority are still dissatisfied and over 90 per cent of Green voters are unhappy with the Coalition's performance.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny sees his rating drop by 2 points to 31 per cent and he continues to trail his party. Labour leader Eamon Gilmore remains the most popular political figure, although he has dropped 2 points to 49 per cent while Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams is down 1 point to 33 per cent.
The poll was taken between Tuesday and Thursday of this week, as the full implications of the Ryan commission report made their impact on the public. The poll was conducted among a representative sample of 2,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 200 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.