Croatia's 'Blair' slightly ahead in opinion polls

CROATIA:Croatia goes to the polls tomorrow, with its two main parties neck and neck in surveys and both vowing to lead their country into the European Union, writes Daniel McLaughlin.

With the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Social Democrats (SDP) sharing most major policy goals, the battle could be decided on personality, which could favour the centre-left opposition.

The SDP has been revitalised by Zoran Milanovic (42), a lawyer who has shaken up Croatian politics by ousting most of his party's old guard and promoting younger men and women, and admitting during an online discussion to smoking marijuana when at school.

Opinion polls give him a slight lead over the HDZ of prime minister Ivo Sanader, who has played on his party's recent dominance of Croatian politics by showing campaign adverts of him meeting European leaders including Bertie Ahern.

Mr Sanader has also won endorsements from tennis star Goran Ivanisevic and the Dinamo Zagreb football team, but it may not be enough to stop Mr Milanovic.

"He's the future of Croatian politics," said Drazen Lalic of the faculty of political science at Zagreb University. "He looks good and communicates well. His nomination reminds me of Tony Blair in Britain in 1997. Milanovic was never a member of the Communist Party; he got rid of some of the old members.

"The SDP wouldn't stand a chance with someone else who is boring and carries baggage from the past in this Americanised, personalised campaign."

Mr Milanovic claims he has no desire to become prime minister but would take a seat in parliament and allow former economy minister Ljubo Jurcic (53) to become premier.

Both main parties hope to conclude negotiations with the European Union and Nato, and accede to the former by 2010 and receive an invitation to join the latter next year.

"Realistically, I hope in the first half of 2009 we could aim at concluding the negotiations but that really depends in the first place on the Croatian government and parliament," Olli Rehn, the EU's enlargement commissioner, said this week.

Sceptics say neither party has committed itself to closing unprofitable shipyards, cutting bloated public spending and reforming the judiciary as demanded by the EU.

"No party has offered a vision of what sort of Croatia they see in 10 years," said analyst Zeljko Trkanjec. "In that sense, the election outcome is somewhat irrelevant."