ANALYSIS:FF's deputy leader is ahead of her colleague on first preferences with a strong transfer pattern also evident
THERE IS a glimmer of hope for Fianna Fáil in today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll in Dún Laoghaire, which shows the party in with a strong chance of saving one seat in a difficult constituency.
Given the collapse of the Fianna Fáil vote in Dublin, retaining even one seat in Dún Laoghaire appeared to be a tall order. There was strong pressure on one of the party’s two candidates to move to Dublin South to increase the chances of retaining one seat.
The poll indicates, however, that the two Fianna Fáil candidates, Mary Hanafin and Barry Andrews, have close to a quota between them and it also reveals a strong transfer pattern that should be enough to salvage one seat.
Party deputy leader Mary Hanafin appears to have the edge going into the last week of the campaign. She is ahead of Andrews in first preferences and is also attracting more transfers from candidates of other parties and Independents.
The poll indicates that Hanafin will take the third seat in the four-seat constituency, which has been reduced from a five-seater at the last election. While that will come as a relief to the party, its vote in the constituency has almost halved from 35 per cent in 2007 to 18 per cent now.
The first two seats will go to Seán Barrett of Fine Gael and Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore.
Barrett’s strong showing is good news for Fine Gael but the bad news is that despite being the biggest party on first preferences, it will probably get just one seat.
The bad news for Gilmore is that he could be pipped for top spot on election day. But the more important good news is that it looks as if his running mate, Senator Ivana Bacik, will be elected for the fourth and final seat.
There is very little between Bacik and the second Fine Gael candidate Mary Mitchell O’Connor on the first count. But the Labour candidate has a bigger pool of transfers from which to draw and at this stage looks in a better position to get the seat.
If Fine Gael could increase its number of first preferences and split them more evenly, Mitchell O’Connor would still be in with a chance.
One positive for the party is that Barrett is far ahead of all other candidates among the better-off AB voters and the over-65s, who are most likely to vote. His running mate also gets the bulk of her support from those groups and it means Fine Gael’s lead over Labour could be bigger by polling day.
Labour has the advantage in that it is attracting more transfers from other parties than Fine Gael, and if Richard Boyd Barrett is eliminated during the count his transfers are much more likely to go to Bacik than to Mitchell O’Connor.
Labour’s weakness is that the Gilmore vote in particular is concentrated heavily among the poorer voters, who traditionally do not vote in the same numbers as better-off social groups in this constituency.
Boyd Barrett has a significant 10 per cent share of the vote and is in fourth place on the first count. It is almost precisely the share he received in 2007, when he looked like winning a seat.
In that election he was 700 votes ahead of Ciarán Cuffe on the first count but by the 10th count the Green candidate was more than 2,000 votes ahead. This time it looks as if Bacik will pass him out before the end.
Cuffe appears to have little chance of being elected. His vote has almost halved since 2007 and he will be eliminated in the early stages of the contest after all of the smaller Independent candidates are eliminated.
Six Independents come in at the bottom of poll with very little support.
But their transfers may prove important in determining which of the candidates bunched in the middle wins the final seat.