FG likely to take three seats as Martin's running mate struggles for final place

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: CORK SOUTH CENTRAL:FREQUENTLY DESCRIBED as a bellwether constituency, in that what happens here reflects national trends, Cork South Central will be watched with even greater interest on this occasion following Micheál Martin's election as leader of Fianna Fáil.

The expectation was that as a result of Martin becoming the first Cork-based leader of the party since Jack Lynch that Fianna Fáil’s Leeside fortunes would enjoy a renaissance, with Martin bringing in his running mate and fellow sitting TD, Michael McGrath.

Last time out, Martin and McGrath, along with John Dennehy, polled an impressive 44.3 per cent, but poor vote- management cost them a third seat, with Martin and McGrath elected on the first count with 11,226 and 9,866 votes respectively as Dennehy lost out on the last seat.

Times have changed, though with Fianna Fáil facing a stern challenge across what is largely a middle-class constituency, stretching from Bishopstown in the west to Douglas and Blackrock in the east and to the commuter town of Carrigaline in south Cork.

Most observers agree that Martin, Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney from Carrigaline and Labour’s Ciarán Lynch from South Douglas Road will be elected, with a resurgent Fine Gael aiming to take two more seats through sitting TD Deirdre Clune and Senator Jerry Buttimer from Bishopstown.

Labour has chosen a second candidate to run with Lynch, Carrigaline-based councillor Paula Desmond.

Her late parents, Dan and Eileen, were both TDs, and she should do well in her local area but it’s hard to see her being in serious contention, though her transfers will help Lynch.

Aside from the main parties, Green Senator Dan Boyle will seek to regain the seat he lost in 2007 to Labour’s Ciarán Lynch but, after four years in government with Fianna Fáil, it’s difficult to see Boyle bettering his 2007 performance, which fell short of the mark.

Sinn Féin councillor Chris O’Leary from Mahon was formerly in the Greens and may prove something of a dark horse, considering he took nearly 1,200 votes in the 2009 local elections as an Independent which, allied to the Sinn Féin vote in the same election, totals more than 5,000 votes.

The contest for the final seat looks like being between McGrath and the third-placed Fine Gael candidate, with both parties facing vote management challenges to try and get their man or woman over the line.

For Fianna Fáil and Martin, the dilemma is that as party leader he will be expected to bring in his running mate, which would require him to sacrifice some of his first-preference votes and direct them to McGrath. If he diverts too many votes, however, he may jeopardise his own chances of election.

For Fine Gael the challenge will be to rein in Coveney and divert votes to Clune and Buttimer so that all three are bunched closely but safely together and not to worry about taking the first seat but focusing on getting all three candidates elected.

Given the array of Opposition candidates lined up against McGrath and the fact that their transfers are likely to go from Fianna Fáil, it seems more likely Fine Gael will take three seats to ensure Cork South Central remains in tune with national trends.

CORK SOUTH CENTRAL: 5 SEATS

OUTGOING TDs:Micheál Martin (FF), Michael McGrath (FF), Simon Coveney (FG), Deirdre Clune (FG), Ciaran Lynch (Lab).

CANDIDATES:Micheál Martin (FF), Michael McGrath (FF), Jerry Buttimer (FG), Deirdre Clune(FG), Simon Coveney (FG),Paula Desmond(Lab), Ciarán Lynch (Lab), Chris O'Leary (SF), Dan Boyle (Green), Diarmaid O Cadhla (CPPC), Sean JB Dunphy (Ind), Michael Finn (Ind), Eric Isherwood (Ind), Gerard Linehan (Ind), David McCarthy (Ind), Ted Neville (Ind) Finbarr O'Driscoll (Ind).

LOCAL ISSUES:While there is concern in the Lower Harbour area about the proposed incinerator for Ringaskiddy, employment and job creation are huge concerns as over the past two years, there have been significant jobs losses in the pharmaceutical industry in the Lower Harbour area. For those in employment, the impact of the Universal Social Charge on pay packets is also being mentioned on the doorstep and according to one candidate, the election is notable for the prevalence of the economy and national issues over local concerns.

VERDICT: FF 1, FG 3, Lab 1