CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:CORK SOUTH West last time out provided an example of what Fine Gael does so well: excellent vote- management by veteran TDs Jim O'Keeffe and PJ Sheehan to snatch back a seat from Fianna Fáil and wind up with two of the three seats on 36 per cent of the vote.
O’Keeffe and Sheehan are stepping down and Fine Gael has opted for a three-candidate strategy with three hopefuls, councillors Jim Daly from Clonakilty, Noel Harrington from Castletownbere and Kevin Murphy from Kinsale.
The strategy is understandable given that all three are running for the Dáil for the first time.
The constituency ranges from near Carrigaline in the east through Kinsale, Bandon, Dunmanway, Clonakilty, Skibbereen and Bantry to Castletownbere in the west.
Geography has also dictated that Fianna Fáil, despite slumping badly in the polls nationally, will run two candidates – outgoing TD Christy O’Sullivan, based in Clonakilty, and Senator Denis O’Donovan, based in Schull on the Mizen peninsula, who lost his seat to O’Sullivan in 2007.
Labour is running Senator Michael McCarthy from Dunmanway. He is making his third attempt to win a seat in a constituency which has been without a Labour TD since Michael Pat Murphy retired in 1981.
Paul Hayes from Clonakilty is standing for Sinn Féin.
The most likely outcome is that Fine Gael will retain its two seats, with Daly, who topped the poll in the Skibbereen area in the 2009 local elections with 2,739, and Murphy, who secured 3,106 in the same election in the Bandon area, in the best positions.
Harrington faces an uphill struggle with some 3,000 votes up for grabs on the Beara peninsula. He will need support from outgoing TD PJ Sheehan and his son, Dermot, a councillor, to pick up votes around Bantry. Harrington defeated Dermot Sheehan at the party convention.
Murphy, unlike Harrington who has O’Donovan on his doorstep in the west, and Daly, who has O’Sullivan and McCarthy to compete with in Clonakilty and Dunmanway, will benefit from having the area around Kinsale and Bandon to himself.
Around Clonakilty the competition will be intense. The town is always keen to have its own TD and backed O’Sullivan in droves in 2007 following the retirement of Joe Walsh. Daly could benefit.
Some observers also sense sympathy for O’Donovan after he lost his seat in 2007 when Fianna Fáil HQ added the then independent O’Sullivan to the ticket, only for O’Sullivan to outpoll O’Donovan by almost 3,000 votes to take the seat.
Labour’s McCarthy will benefit from Sinn Féin transfers, but he needs to double his 2002 and 2007 vote when he polled just over 9 per cent.
Several independents are running, including David McInerney from Ballinhassig, Michael Miney O’Sullivan from Castletownbere, John Kearney from Baltimore and Donal O’Riordan of new group Fís Nua.
The possibility of Labour taking a seat from Fine Gael or, even more improbably from Fianna Fáil, cannot be discounted, but it is more likely that the status quo will be maintained, with Fine Gael holding two seats and Fianna Fáil retaining its one.