Covid cases likely to peak within days before falling, modelling suggests

Covid-19 cases in Ireland will peak within days and decline thereafter, according to a composite of forecasts by European disease modelling agencies.

Hospitalisations will continue to rise through November, while deaths will also increase, according to the European Covid-19 forecast hub.

A total of 3,903 new cases were reported on Friday, the highest daily figure in the pandemic outside a 10-day period last January.

"This is a very concerning figure and a stark reminder that this virus is highly contagious," said chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan. "This is not a situation any of us want to be in, but our reality remains that we are still in the midst of a global pandemic."

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The hub, which collates short-term forecasts of Covid-19 across Europe generated by different modelling teams using a wide range of approaches, forecasts almost 500 Covid-19 patients in Irish hospitals by the middle of the month.

The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital increased by five on Friday, to 463. ICU numbers fell from 90 to 76.

The estimates of individual models varies considerably, and the forecasts are subject to limitations, including those relating to complexities around changing behaviours, policies and testing approaches.

Government sources said they expected the figures in hospitals and intensive care units to increase over the weekend but there was not yet panic at the high case numbers.

Dr Holohan said Ireland had been tracking ahead of other western European countries in the fourth wave of the pandemic, but incidence was starting to rise across the continent “in line with our own recent experience”.

He described as “some good news” a fall in the incidence of people requiring hospitalisation and critical care, which is due to a fall in the average age of cases and the early impact of booster vaccinations.

Role of antivirals

Drugs to treat Covid-19 look set to play a bigger role in the pandemic relative to vaccines after two sets of positive trial results for two new antivirals in two days.

US pharma giant Pfizer on Friday said it had stopped a trial of its experimental antiviral pill to tackle the virus early after it was shown to cut by 89 per cent the chances of hospitalisation or death for adults at risk of developing severe disease. The company's plant in Ringaskiddy, Cork is likely to manufacture the entire global supply of the drug, which has the brand name Paxlovid.

The Government is hopeful that first deliveries of a second antiviral, molnupiravir, will arrive into Ireland “within weeks”, sources said, though it has yet to be authorised in Europe.

The UK medicines regulator this week gave the drug, manufactured by Merck, the green light, while the European Medicines Agency said it was "ready to give advice to member states so that they could make this new treatment available for emergency use, ahead of a marketing authorisation".

Covid certs

Separately, the proportion of pub-goers not having their Covid-19 certificates checked on entry has almost doubled, despite concern over non-compliance contributing to the rise in cases.

Move than 37 per cent of indoor diners in pubs said their certificate was not checked in October, compared with 21 per cent the month before, according to the latest report monitoring behaviour.

A quarter of those going to cafes and a third of restaurant diners said their Covid-19 certificates were not checked.

Most people say they would accept a vaccine booster if offered one, but the proportion is smaller than those who accepted the first vaccine, the ESRI’s social activity measure found.

Aside from the 81 per cent who support a booster, 8 per cent said they did not get the first vaccine and 10 per cent said they would not take a booster.

Parents are divided on whether to allow their children under 12 to be vaccinated if it was recommended; 40 per cent say they would, 30 per cent say they would not and 30 per cent answered “maybe”.