Dementia to rise threefold by 2046, says Minister of State

The number of people in Ireland with dementia is forecast to treble in the coming 30 years as the population ages, new figures show.

The number of cases will increase from the current level of under 55,000 to more than 152,000 by the year 2046, according to Minister of State for mental health and older people Helen McEntee.

Half of those with dementia approaching the middle of the century will be aged 85 and over, the projections provided by the Department of Health show, but there will also be 3,000 cases a year of dementia in those under 60.

Ms McEntee said the international evidence was the age of onset of dementia is increasing in high-income countries, while the duration of illness was reducing. This is thought to be the result of better treatment to reduce the incidence of heart disease and stroke.

Obesity and diabetes

She said it was uncertain whether, or to what extent, this positive trend may be offset in the future by an increase in the number of people who are overweight or obese or who have diabetes. “However, the increasing population of older people in Ireland means that the number of cases of people who have dementia is likely to increase.”

The death rate from dementia has increased threefold in less than a decade, figures from the Central Statistics Office show. Deaths rose from 739 in 2008 to 2,159 last year. Women were twice as likely as men to die from dementia.

Ms McEntee, who was responding to a parliamentary question from Fianna Fáil TD Mary Butler, said the 2014 national dementia strategy aims to ensure the condition is better recorded in the health service with the data collected being used in future research to inform dementia care.

Lifestyle and education

A recent report estimated the number of people with dementia could be reduced by more than 1,000 by tackling risk factors such as low levels of education and unhealthy lifestyles.

Government policy should be informed by a concept of "brain health" aimed at minimising early school leaving and promoting healthy lifestyles, the report by the Institute of Public Health suggested.

Research has shown that a low level of education is associated with increased dementia risk in later life. Increased levels of education can delay the early symptoms of dementia and slow down the development of the condition.