Higgins could squeeze out two incumbents

ANALYSIS: EU ELECTIONS: DUBLIN: The Socialist candidate has made a close race for the final seat all the more interesting

THE BATTLE for the third and last seat in the Dublin constituency is shaping up to be one of the most exciting contests.

At least one of Dublin’s four MEPs is going to lose out, for the simple reason that the constituency has been reduced to a three-seater. The assumption up to last week was that the loser was going to be Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fáil or Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin.

However, the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll indicates that both of them could lose out, with Joe Higgins slipping through to win the final seat.

The poll showed sitting MEPs Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael) and Proinsias De Rossa (Labour) storming ahead of the field. Both seem assured of re-election but are apprehensive that they could suffer slippage because of the perception their seats are safe.

As he tramps around the streets of the capital Mitchell tells a story about meeting a well-known Fine Gael activist during the last European election campaign and discovering to his horror that she was going to vote for Ryan to stop the hapless Royston Brady winning a seat.

This time around, with Ryan battling the Shinner and the Trotskyite for the final seat, Mitchell fears that there may an even greater enticement for Fine Gael voters to stray into the camp of the well-spoken Fianna Fáil candidate they can’t help liking.

De Rossa also worries that the assumption he is safe may lead to some of his support being chipped away by Higgins. That said, it would take a political earthquake in the final days of the campaign to put either Mitchell or De Rossa into the danger zone. Both are prominent political figures with clear political philosophies who have established their reputations by dint of hard work over the years. They have wide voter recognition, which is a huge factor in European elections, and on top of that they are ideally placed to surf the wave of anger at the Government.

The final Irish Timespoll gave Mitchell 28 per cent of the vote and De Rossa 25 per cent. If that is repeated on polling day the Fine Gael MEP will be re-elected with a surplus and De Rossa will also be over the line on the first count. It means there will be a titanic struggle for the final seat among the rest of the field. The poll gave McDonald a slight edge with 11 per cent as against 9 per cent for Ryan but he had the advantage of a second Fianna Fáil candidate, the impressive Lord Mayor of Dublin Eibhlin Byrne, on 5 per cent.

The surprise in the poll was that Joe Higgins had also moved up level with Ryan on 9 per cent. He too has the potential to pick up transfers and if he can get himself ahead of McDonald during the count will be in with a real chance of getting elected.

Higgins has pulled ahead of former Green Party MEP Patricia McKenna, who is running as an Independent and, if he can stay in front of her, can expect to do well out of her transfers. He is likely to be more transfer friendly than the Sinn Féin candidate so may be able to haul in McDonald in the course of the count.

The transfers of the Green Party candidate, Senator Déirdre de Búrca, are likely to play a vital part in determining which of the three contenders is eliminated first. The poll showed her holding on to a respectable 6 per cent and it will be fascinating to see whether the bulk of her transfers go to her Fianna Fáil Government partners, Joe Higgins or Sinn Féin.

Another factor at play is that there is intense competition between the former and current Green candidates. It will be a huge psychological boost for the Greens if de Búrca can come in ahead of McKenna. There is also the incentive for both of them to get a quarter of a quota (just over 6 per cent) which will entitle them to have election expenses of up to €38,000 reimbursed by the exchequer.

The final seat, though, is still the goal of everybody in the chasing bunch, including de Búrca and McKenna. Everything will depend on the order of elimination and the destination of transfers.

Ryan is confident that he will pull through at the end, just as he did in 2004. “I think it is coming back to me. A lot of people I meet out on the canvass are staying they would prefer to see me there than Sinn Féin because people now realise how important Europe is to us,” he said.

McDonald has no illusions about the battle she is facing. “It is a very tight contest and it was always going to be like that with the number of seats being reduced. We are getting a very strong response from people across the city but I do not underestimate the task ahead,” she said. “Campaigns take on a dynamic of their own in the last week but I believe I am in with a fighting chance.”

The big question is whether the dynamic of the campaign is now with Higgins. He is the only one of the three contenders for the last seat who gained support between the first and second Irish Timespolls. If that trend continues for the last week of the campaign then he must be in with a great chance.

Also running in Dublin is Caroline Simons of Libertas. Despite the fact that a lot of money has been spent on her campaign she has made little impact so far and probably faces elimination early on. Independent Emmanuel Sweeney is also running.

THE CANDIDATES

Eoin Ryan (Fianna Fáil)*, Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin)*,  Gay Mitchell (Fine Gael)*, Proinsias De Rossa (Labour)*, Eibhlin Byrne (Fianna Fáil), Patricia McKenna (Independent), Déirdre de Búrca (Green Party), Joe Higgins (Socialist Party), Caroline Fitzsimons (Libertas), Emmanuel Sweeney (Independent)

* outgoing MEP