Huge battle likely for last Cork East seat

Although it's unlikely to be one of the constituencies that is going to contribute to a change of government, given Fianna Fáil…

Although it's unlikely to be one of the constituencies that is going to contribute to a change of government, given Fianna Fáil's grip on its two seats, Cork East is nonetheless an intriguing contest with Fine Gael looking to win a second seat at the expense of Labour.

Last time out, veteran TD Joe Sherlock took a seat for Labour when, despite coming sixth on first preferences, he held off the challenge of then sitting Fine Gael TD Paul Bradford, who was third on first preferences.

Now Bradford is hoping to win back the seat being defended by Sherlock's son Seán and former Labour TD John Mulvihill, with Fianna Fáil's Ned O'Keeffe and Minister of State Michael Ahern, and Fine Gael TD, David Stanton all bidding to retain their seats.

The 2002 election highlights the importance of geography in Cork East and the clear north/ east divide in a constituency that runs from Mitchelstown in the north and takes in towns like Mallow and Fermoy to Youghal, Midleton, Carrigtwohill and Cobh in the south.

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The constituency has seen its population grow over the past five years, with large growth in commuter towns like Mallow, Fermoy, Midleton, Cobh and Carrigtwohill, resulting in an 11,101 increase in voters from 2002 to a current figure of 83,803.

Fianna Fáil took 41 per cent of the vote in 2002, with Mitchelstown-based Ned O'Keeffe topping the poll on 23.09 per cent, ahead of Ahern from Carrigtwohill on 18.21 per cent, and while the Fianna Fáil vote is likely to be down a couple of points, it would be a major surprise if they were not both returned again this time.

In 2002, Bradford, based just outside Mallow, polled 15.40 per cent of first preferences compared to 13.69 per cent for Stanton from Midleton, with the Labour duo of Mulvihill from Cobh on 10.51 per cent and Sherlock from Mallow on 10.46 per cent.

However, Sherlock took 29.82 per cent of transfers from two other northern candidates, June Murphy of Sinn Féin and Martin O'Keeffe of the Greens, to move well ahead of Mulvihill who, upon elimination, transferred 44.39 per cent of his votes to elect Sherlock ahead of Bradford, with Stanton also being elected.

This time, Sinn Féin is running Cllr Sandra McLellan from Youghal, and Sarah Iremonger from Cobh is standing for the Greens, and while both should pick up votes across the constituency, there should also be a significant local element to their votes, which should stay in east Cork upon their elimination.

Transfers will be crucial but so too will sequence of elimination, with both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael opinion polls placing Stanton ahead of Bradford who is, in turn, ahead of Sherlock, with some pundits then reckoning that McLellan may be ahead of Mulvihill, although this is strongly disputed by Labour.

For Fine Gael to win a second seat, they would need to increase their first preference vote to 33-34 per cent and Bradford would need to be about 1,000 votes ahead of Stanton, who is the more likely of the two to pick up transfers from his fellow east Cork candidates, Iremonger and McLellan.

Assuming Stanton is by then close to the quota, Fine Gael will be hoping that Mulvihill will overtake Sherlock and that Sherlock's votes stay local around Mallow in sufficient numbers for Bradford to pick up enough transfers to fend off Mulvihill's challenge.

For Sherlock to hold the seat, Labour need him to pick up transfers from the Greens and Sinn Féin (not impossible given Sherlock's father's republican background) to bring him close to Bradford and then pick up a solid transfer from Mulvihill to again leapfrog Bradford.

Mulvihill can't be ruled out, however, though it's a longer shot.

With so many variables, the outcome is far from certain, but given Bradford may well be struggling for transfers from southern-based candidates, don't rule out Sherlock managing to stay ahead of Mulvihill and then, on foot of his transfers, sneaking the seat as happened in 2002.

VERDICT - FF - 2 FG - 1 Lab -1

Prediction: No Change

LOCAL ISSUES

Unemployment is a big issue, with the constituency suffering over 3,000 jobs losses over past six years in towns like Mallow (Irish Sugar, Nestle and Dairygold), Mitchelstown (Dairygold), Fermoy (FCI), Cobh (Irish Steel and IFI), Youghal (Couristan Carpets, Technicolor Home Entertainment, Artesyn Technologies and Elba Labs), and Carrigtwohill (Youghal Carpets). There is also local concern about Amgen going ahead with its plan for a 1,100 job plant at Carrigtwohill. Other local issues include transport, in particular the provision of a northern relief road for Mallow, tolling on the Fermoy bypass and the re-opening of the Cork-Midleton rail line, as well as the location of a proposed incinerator across Cork harbour from Cobh.