Ireland 'at medium risk' of pandemic

Ireland ranks 147th out of 213 countries most at risk from an influenza pandemic, according to data published today.

The Influenza Pandemic Risk Index (IPRI), published by specialist research and advisory company Maplecroft, takes into account historic and current outbreaks of avian and swine flu.

Countries are ranked in three categories - risk of emergence, risk of spread and capacity to contain an outbreak.

The countries with most exposure to risk of emergence of swine or avian flu in humans and human to human infection are poor countries with densely populated rural areas where people live in close proximity to swine and poultry.

Mexico is categorised as being at extreme risk of emergence (ranked 4th) below Vietnam (1st), China (2nd) and Bangladesh (3rd).

The UK (62nd), Germany (55th) and USA (32nd) are all ranked as high risk, while Ireland (147th) is categorised as having a medium risk of emergence.

In terms of the spread of a virus, developed countries such as the United Kingdom (1st), the Netherlands (2nd), Germany (6th) and Italy (7th) are categorised as being at "extreme risk" due to high population density, urbanisation and increased air travel.

However, advanced health care systems, the stockpiling of anti-viral drugs, good sanitation and education systems indicate a greater capability in developed countries to contain a virus.

Due to the developed nature of Ireland's infrastructure, it is ranked 168th in the index and has a "low risk" in terms of not being able to contain the spread of a virus.

Sub-Saharan Africa is the region least capable of containing the spread of a virus, with 27 of the 30 countries ranked as being at "extreme risk".