The Government set an ambitious target in its Action Plan for Jobs when in 2012 it committed to creating the economic conditions to achieve 100,000 new private sector jobs by 2016. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in reviewing the Government’s employment strategy has said it is on course to do so, and to achieve its longer-term target of 2.1 million employed by 2021.
The value of external oversight by an expert body such as the OECD is that it allows for objective and independent analysis of the implementation of the plan, and for criticism where necessary. The OECD manages to strike a fair balance in its report. It tempers praise for much of the Government’s efforts, while expressing some misgivings about its governance and oversight procedures. The OECD also questions the adequacy of the Government’s approach to the huge challenge that youth and long-term unemployment present.
The domestic economy can often send mixed signals and confusing messages, transmitted via the statistics that measure its performance. Last year was a case in point. Most economic forecasters then overestimated the likely rate of economic growth in 2013. An economy forecast to expand contracted instead – with a 0.3 per cent decline in GDP. But despite that, employment soared last year, and increased more rapidly in Ireland than anywhere else in the European Union. But, as the OECD warns, unless more is now done to assist the long-term unemployed regain employment when employment is rising, then it will be far more difficult to do it later in less favourable conditions. The risk is that the cyclical rise in unemployment, caused by the economic downturn, may become structural. Likewise, the OECD has also strongly advised the Government to pay greater attention to youth unemployment – where one-quarter of the workforce under 24 is out of work – and to ensure the young, through lack of job opportunities, do not become a lost generation.