Q&A: What do Karen Bradley’s hints on Stormont collapse mean?

Northern Secretary Karen Bradley has made a statement in the House of Commons on what happens next after last week’s DUP-Sinn Féin talks collapsed. What happens next?

"Northern Ireland, " said Ms Bradley, "cannot simply remain in a state of limbo." But in what was a holding statement she was unclear about what that specifically means, although she did provide pointers and hints.

What sort of hints?

That in the absence of a Northern Executive and Assembly, she soon might have to introduce legislation from Westminster to provide for the 2018-2019 budget. Emphasising that point she said “there needs to be certainty and clarity about a budget for Northern Ireland for next year as soon as possible”. Reducing the salaries of the North’s 90 under-employed Assembly members is also on the cards but Ms Bradley did not say when this might happen.

Would a budget be tantamount to a return to direct rule from Westminster?

The short answer is no, although a Westminster budget would be an act of direct rule. It was clear from Ms Bradley's statement that, like her predecessor James Brokenshire, she is anxious to avoid full direct rule and that she retains some hope that the collapsed DUP-Sinn Féin deal still could be retrieved. Last November Mr Brokenshire introduced special legislation to allow for a current budget for Northern Ireland while stopping short of direct rule. Thereafter he left it to the Northern Ireland civil service to run Northern Ireland.

So, has she ruled out direct rule?

Again the short answer is no, but one that must be qualified. It is still a major option but one that she and the Irish Government are desperate to avoid. Both governments, according to numerous sources, believe the DUP and Sinn Féin had resolved their critical differences over an Irish language Act. That should have allowed a return to devolution – but ultimately the DUP could not sell it. That seems implicit in Ms Bradley's House of Commons statement where she referred to the parties making progress in the talks and reaching a "balanced and fair accommodation on the difficult issues of language and culture".

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No direct rule, then?

Not for the moment certainly but if it becomes clear there is no prospect of a DUP-Sinn Féin deal, then direct rule inevitably would be on the cards. This appeared implicit when Ms Bradley said: “Longer term the [British] government will not shirk its responsibilities to take whatever steps are necessary to provide certainty and stability for the people of Northern Ireland, while maintaining our commitment to govern with rigorous impartiality in the interests of all the people of Northern Ireland.”

How about fresh Assembly elections?

Ms Bradley did not rule out such a possibility although there is not much appetite for elections in the North at the moment. But it could be a final call by the British government before a doomsday move to direct rule.

Direct rule would mean the demise of the Northern Assembly?

Possibly, but not necessarily. One option is that the Assembly would remain in place as a consultative body advising British direct rule ministers who would be running the various departments.

Is there a possibility of joint authority of Northern Ireland from London and Dublin if the deadlock remains?

The Irish Government, Sinn Féin and the SDLP will argue trenchantly against direct rule and might push for some arrangement such as joint authority or a less definitive "joint stewardship". Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said in the absence of powersharing he would call for a meeting of the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference, one of mechanisms of the 1998 Belfast Agreement, to try to chart a way forward. Ultimately though, sovereignty rests with the British government which is dependent on the DUP for its survival.

What happens in the meantime?

Civil servants continue to run Northern Ireland.