‘Steady’ stream of voters will decide Stormont election

The turnout in the Stormont elections was described as "steady" on Thursday night as voters decided the format of the next slimmed-down Northern Assembly.

The election will determine whether the DUP will remain as the dominant political force in Northern Ireland or whether Sinn Féin will narrow the gap between the two parties or, in the event of an extraordinary result, overtake the DUP.

Parties such as the Ulster Unionist Party, the SDLP and Alliance will also be hoping to increase their percentage vote or consolidate what they hold.

Against uncertainty over whether this election will lead to a return of Stormont or direct rule from Westminster, counting begins this morning, with all 90 seats in the North’s 18 five-seater constituencies expected to be filled by Saturday evening. Since May Stormont has been reduced from a 108-member chamber to a 90-seat Assembly.

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Before the polls were scheduled to close at 10pm the indications were that the turnout would be higher than last May’s Assembly elections when just under 55 per cent of the registered 1,281,595 electorate voted.

Since May some 60,000 voters were taken off the Electoral Office of Northern Ireland list for failing to confirm over the last three years that they were still resident and entitled to vote in the North. With new registrations the current electorate is 1,254,709.

Public anger

The great uncertainty about this election is how voters will respond to the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) scheme, which could result in an overspend of up to £490 million, and which was introduced in 2012 when DUP leader

Arlene Foster

was the minister for enterprise, trade and investment.

A higher turnout than last year could indicate continuing public anger at the so-called “cash for ash” fiasco, and possible damage to the DUP vote.

Last May in the then 108-seat, 18 six-seater constituency election the DUP won 38 seats, Sinn Féin won 28, the UUP 16, the SDLP 12, Alliance eight and the smaller groupings six.

Proportionally, based on the same voting pattern this time the DUP would be expected to take 32 seats, Sinn Féin 23, the UUP 13, the SDLP 10 and Alliance seven,with the smaller groups dropping one of their six seats.

Turnout could be critical in determining whether the DUP will maintain a substantial lead over Sinn Féin or whether the republican base will be so energised over RHI and matters such as the Irish language that it will turn out in higher numbers to reduce the gap with the Democratic Unionists.

The North’s chief electoral officer, Virginia McVea, said throughout the day a regular stream of voters were turning out at the polling stations. She said anecdotally some stations were reporting higher turnouts than last May.

“The reports that I am getting throughout the day is that voting is steady, and the best guess anecdotally is that there hasn’t been any lull in turnout. Some people are thinking that it may well be up, but we don’t have anything forensic to support that,” said Ms McVea.

First results

It is expected that the first results will be announced around lunchtime Friday. It is likely that a number of counts will run into Saturday.

DUP leader Ms Foster, who has faced most pressure in this election, voted at Brookeborough primary school in her Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency. Afterwards she tweeted, "Great support around Fermanagh today. Thanks for all the messages! Vote DUP to build a stronger, better Northern Ireland."

Some 40 miles away at St Patrick’s primary school in her native village of Clonoe, Co Tyrone, the Sinn Féin leader in the North, Michelle O’Neill, cast her vote accompanied by daughter Saoirse and son Ryan.

“It’s great that so many people are coming out to vote,” said Ms O’Neill.