Labour set to gain seat as FF hopefuls battle it out

Tipperary South is not for the faint-hearted. Renowned for its love of bloodsports, the old South Riding is in full cry, pursuing not mongrel foxes but the constituency's precious quarry of three seats. Fur will fly.

"There's civil war going on inside Fianna Fáil here," was the gleeful observation of a man outside the Galtee Inn in Cahir last Tuesday afternoon.

The sentiment was greeted by nods of agreement among bystanders on the square awaiting the arrival of Pat Rabbitte's battle bus. But the "comrades" of the broad left are also engaged in their own decidedly internecine struggle, with Labour hoping to take the seat of a sitting left-wing Independent TD.

The drama has a large supporting cast supplied by smaller parties and, in the best Tipperary tradition, a second Independent (ex-Fine Gael) candidate.

From Mullinahone across to Bansha, there appears to be consensus among all parties on just one point: Fine Gael's Tom Hayes is considered to be a "dead-cert" - although he feigned horror at the prospect of this prognosis appearing in print.

From a rock-solid power base in Cashel, he headed the poll last time with 24.5 per cent of the first preferences, and he is expected to gallop past the winning post with an even better performance next week.

Outgoing Fianna Fáil TD Noel Davern is retiring after four decades of public life and the party has picked three candidates in an attempt to replace him.

Cllr Siobhán Ambrose, from a well-known Clonmel Fianna Fáil family, is the daughter of a former mayor and reputedly has the backing of the Davern camp. But most interest is focused on the party's acknowledged front-runners. Heavyweight Dr Martin Mansergh, a bigwig adviser to the Taoiseach, polled over 14 per cent of first preferences last time but failed to take a second seat for Fianna Fáil. Later that summer he was elected to the Seanad.

On this occasion the Oxford-educated historian, former diplomat and erstwhile Irish Times columnist "Goliath" faces a bare-knuckle challenge from a "David" in the form of Mattie McGrath, the owner of a plant-hire company, who was educated at St Joseph's, Cahir, and at Kildalton Agricultural College.

A Fianna Fáil activist on the streets of Clonmel, who declined to be named and who assumed (mistakenly) that this reporter was campaigning for the Senator, said: "Mansergh is a grand man and fierce well-educated whereas Mattie is more a man of the people."

Despite heading the poll at the selection convention, McGrath's ratification was delayed by Fianna Fáil because he has been charged with public-order offences following a late-night "incident" outside a pub in his home village of Newcastle last summer. He, along with six co-defendants, has pleaded not guilty, and the case is adjourned at Clonmel District Court until June 12th. McGrath has vigorously protested his innocence, is anxious to clear his good name and says that the issue is "not coming up on the doorsteps".

Behind the pizzazz of a colourful, populist campaign assisted by canvassers sporting old-fashioned green rosettes, and enlivened by specially-written songs, McGrath is a poll-topping councillor with 25 years of service and a creditable record of involvement in community and voluntary organisations.

Outgoing Independent TD Séamus Healy, a former hospital administrator and a founder of the Workers' and Unemployed Action Group, was first elected in a June 2000 byelection and held his seat in the subsequent general election. But he now faces a huge challenge from a Labour Party determined to win back its traditional seat.

Ironically, Labour's candidate, Cllr Phil Prendergast, is a former member of Healy's group and stood as an Independent in the 2001 by-election (won by Fine Gael's Tom Hayes), when she polled almost 8,000 votes. Prendergast fell out with Healy after he allegedly failed to support a Fine Gael Dáil motion censuring Sinn Féin and she then joined the Labour Party in 2005.

A midwife, she is married to a nurse and she will ably compete for the health worker vote. She may also have an edge with the support of both the party machine and a county-wide network of Labour councillors.

Barring a sensation, the chief interest in the remaining candidates will be the destination of their transfers.

With less than a week to polling day, it looks like Tom Hayes for Fine Gael; Mattie McGrath, by the skin of his teeth, for Fianna Fáil; and Phil Prendergast to provide a famous victory for Labour in a place, Clonmel, where the party was founded 95 years ago.

Despite the upgrading and investment at South Tipperary General Hospital, health is still a major issue. But crime and anti-social behaviour are also exercising voters, particularly after a recent case of suspected arson in Clonmel which led to the death of a woman in a house fire on a council estate. Pockets of unemployment - with rates up to three times higher than the national average - persist in towns such as Carrick-on-Suir and Tipperary. There are also problems with water supply and sewerage infrastructure for new housing developments.