A major resurgence for Fianna Fáil that would put the party in a strong position to form the next government is shown in the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll which also finds that the alternative alliance of Fine Gael and Labour has lost momentum over the past week.
Support for Fianna Fáil is up by five percentage points while support for Fine Gael is down one point and Labour is down three points.
The Government parties have a lead of six points over the alternative alliance with less than a week of the campaign to go.
The adjusted figures for party support are: Fianna Fáil 41 per cent (up five points); Fine Gael 27 per cent (down one point); Labour 10 per cent (down three points); Sinn Féin 9 per cent (down one point); Greens 6 per cent (up one point); PDs 2 per cent (no change); and Independents/others 5 per cent (down one point).
The Taoiseach emerged as the emphatic winner of the television debate with 32 per cent deeming him the victor. Just 13 per cent gave victory to Mr Kenny, 14 per cent thought it was a draw, while the remaining 41 per cent either didn't watch the debate or had no opinion.
The poll was conducted last Friday and Saturday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.
The core vote for the parties is: Fianna Fáil 39 per cent (up four points); Fine Gael 21 per cent (down one point); Labour 8 per cent (down two points); Sinn Féin 8 per cent (no change); Greens 5 per cent (up one point); PDs 1 per cent (down one point); Independents/ others 4 per cent (no change); and undecided voters 15 per cent (no change). When voters were asked which of the alternative coalitions they would like to see forming the next government, the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition had moved into a six-point lead over the Fine Gael-Labour alliance, with the possible support of the Greens.
This marked a significant turnaround from the previous week when the alternative alliance had a two-point lead. There was also a change in the perception about who would win the election, with a four-point lead for the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition compared to a one-point lead for the Fine Gael-led alternative in the previous poll.
On the issue of the Taoiseach's finances, only 29 per cent of voters believe he has given the full picture, while 58 per cent think he has further questions to answer. When asked if it was a serious issue in the election campaign, 36 per cent said it was but 54 per cent said it was not. An overwhelming majority of Fianna Fáil and PD voters felt it was not an issue but a majority of all other party supporters felt it was.
The poll, which took place in the wake of the television debate and three days after the Taoiseach's address at Westminster, showed a four-point increase in Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating to 58 per cent. Satisfaction with the Government is up five points, to 52 per cent.
Mr Kenny's satisfaction rating is up one point, to 48 per cent, while Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte is down one point, to 49. Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams is down two points, to 49, Trevor Sargent is down three points to 39 and Michael McDowell is up two points to 36.
The Taoiseach emerged far stronger than Mr Kenny on the economy, taxation and foreign affairs, while Mr Kenny was ahead on health.
The findings will come as a morale boost for Fianna Fáil. The only negative for the Government side is the continued poor showing of the PDs who will suffer substantial losses unless there is an improvement by Thursday.
The only consolation for the alternative government is that the combined party support for Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens comes to 43 per cent, exactly the same as the combined support for the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition. The Fine Gael vote has held up reasonably well in the face of the Fianna Fáil revival and on 27 per cent it stands to make serious gains.
However, the drop in Labour support means that some of the Fine Gael gains could come at the expense of its partner.
There is good news for the Greens who had been losing support but who have now regained some momentum and, on 6 per cent, should be able to gain seats. Sinn Féin has slipped a little but the party showing of 9 per cent should see it make significant gains on election day.