Ministers in the dark as to their prospects

The new Cabinet will be created today, following expectations raised by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, that he will make significant…

The new Cabinet will be created today, following expectations raised by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, that he will make significant changes among senior ministers.

Last night, senior ministers insisted they were still in the dark about their futures: "I have not got a clue what he will do. We won't find out until the morning," confessed one.

Despite Mr Ahern's declaration to the Fianna Fáil Parliamentary Party that he has a "clean sheet", most Fianna Fáil TDs still believe Mr Ahern will make no more than five changes.

The changes will be announced after Mr Ahern is re-elected Taoiseach by the Dáil today and after he goes to Áras an Úachtaráin to meet the President, Mrs McAleese.

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A major lobbying effort appears to be under way by leading co-operative figures to ensure the survival of the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh, whose position is under threat.

In addition, the future of the Minister for Marine and Natural Resources, Mr Fahey, is in doubt, according to a number of senior Fianna Fáil figures.

The ministerial service of the Minister for Education, Dr Woods, seems set to be at an end: "He is not even acting like he expects to be reappointed," said one Fianna Fáil colleague.

The only ministers regarded as safe are Mr Cowen, Mr McCreevy, Mr Dempsey, Mr O'Donoghue, Mr Martin and Mr Dermot Ahern.

The Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, is keen for a change and could move to either Agriculture or Environment, while Mr Dempsey is being tipped to head the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment.

The Ceann Comhairle's post is expected to be filled by the current Leas Ceann Comhairle, Dr Rory O'Hanlon; the Minister for Arts and Culture, Ms Sile de Valera; or the Minister for Defence, Mr Michael Smith.

Ministers of State Mr Seamus Brennan and Ms Mary Hanafin are the most likely promotion hopefuls, although fellow junior ministers Mr Martin Cullen and Mr Willie O'Dea are also strongly tipped.

The Progressive Democrats' leader, Ms Mary Harney, has, according to a number of sources, pushed to have Laois/Offaly TD Mr Tom Parlon appointed as Minister of State for European Affairs.

However, this job could become one of the high profile during the Government's lifetime, given the battle to be faced over the Nice II referendum and Ireland's 2004 EU Presidency.

It is unlikely that his constituency counterpart, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, would be keen on having such a high-profile junior minister in Iveagh House.

The Attorney General, Mr McDowell, is strongly tipped to become the Minister of Justice - although the concession of such a key post by Fianna Fáil to the PDs would surprise many.

The Department of Environment will take over Ireland's campaign to close Sellafield from the Department of Public Enterprise, which will also lose its e-commerce brief to Enterprise, Trade and Employment.

The clear favourite for the other Minister of State post allocated to the PDs is Limerick East TD, Mr Tim O'Malley.