New research gives scientists better data to predict Atlantic storms

AN international team of 70 meteorologists and research scientists working in Shannon has gathered an unprecedented amount of data on storms that originate in the Atlantic Ocean and buffet western Europe.

Atlantic storms are notoriously unpredictable and can cause severe damage over land. The team, which was based in Shannon Airport during January and February, is confident that at least some of the uncertainty about how the storms develop can be removed.

The Shannon project, known as the Fronts and Atlantic Storm Tracks Experiment (FASTEX), was the most extensive meteorological experiment ever carried out in Europe, and the collected data will keep about 20 research teams in 10 countries, including Ireland, busy with analysis well into the next millennium.

It is expected that the research will enable more accurate forecasting and more timely warnings of severe storms.

The two month experiment costing £5 million to date, involved the sending of aircraft and research vessels out into the eye of storms which developed in the Atlantic. These were backed up by meteorological stations recording data on land.

Shannon was considered an ideal base for the field studies, because the western seaboard has a ring side seat when it comes to incoming Atlantic storms. They reach Ireland before other land masses can have an impact on their development or eventual strength.

While the processing of data is only at the initial stages, FASTEX has already proven to be very successful, particularly in the context of Met Eireann's involvement.

In met speak, the experiment concentrated on "intensive operation periods" (IOPs) whenever a suitable low, or depression, occurred. Lows often rapidly develop into severe storms.

Data collection was stepped up at these times of "something brewing up" in an attempt to generate an improved profile of a storm. Balloon like structures called radiosondes were dropped over vast areas to record wind, temperature, pressure and other data.

The team hoped to observe 10 IOPs but got 19 after a quiet January and a hectic February when IOPs whistled past Ireland at a rate of one every two or three, days, according to Dr Peter Lynch, assistant director of Met Eireann, who was involved in FASTEX.

"There was a certain anxiety at a mid term review. If things went on like January, which was benign, we were saying we will be going home without any interesting cases," Dr Lynch said.

Instead they succeeded in recording the dynamics of the beginnings and progression of more than enough storms to make the project a success.

A particular aim was to observe their genesis in the western Atlantic as "it's a bit late when they are whistling over Ireland", Dr Lynch said.

Specially reinforced aircraft were deployed from Newfoundland, Shannon and Britain, to take measurements in incredibly difficult conditions. These aircraft flew back and forth in storms.

"A normal, sane pilot would give these things a wide berth. These guys do the opposite. Their aircraft are subject to enormous stress and buffeting," Dr Lynch said.

The aircraft included jets supplied by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in the US, as well as Hercules C-130 from the British Met Office. US interest in the research was due to its likely relevance to storms occurring in the eastern Pacific.

Research vessels got a buffeting too, with one Icelandic ship encountering 100 m.p.h. winds and waves of more than 15 metres. Altogether they recorded 8,000 atmospheric soundings.

"Sometimes, forecasting goes wrong and we don't know why," Dr Lynch said. "It's because we don't understand the atmosphere fully enough. FASTEX might go towards plugging that gap."