Nikolic win could hasten Kosovo independence

KOSOVO:Victory for ultra-nationalist challenger Tomislav Nikolic in Sunday's Serb presidential election run-off could prompt Kosovo to declare independence as early as next week, according to political sources in the province.

Polls put Mr Nikolic neck and neck with West-leaning President Boris Tadic before the crucial vote, which is seen as deciding whether Serbia moves closer to the European Union or Russia in the years ahead.

Kosovo's leaders are expected to declare independence within weeks - whoever wins - but victory for Mr Tadic would encourage Kosovo to co-ordinate the announcement with the EU and US in a bid to bolster his position at the start of a second term in office.

Triumph for first-round winner Mr Nikolic, however, would effectively end hopes in Kosovo of having any meaningful co-operation with Belgrade, and cast doubt on Serbia's ties with Brussels, Washington and the UN war crimes court in The Hague.

"If Nikolic wins, it's the ninth or 10th (of February)," Reuters quoted a "senior political source" as saying in reference to Kosovo's declaration of independence.

Another source told the news agency that victory for Mr Tadic would probably prompt the 90 per cent Albanian region to wait until February 17th at the earliest.

Dukagjin Gorani, a political adviser to Kosovo prime minister Hashim Thaci, confirmed to The Irish Times that Sunday's result could affect the timing of the announcement, which Serbia and Russia vow not to recognise.

"If it's a Nikolic victory then an independence declaration might be accelerated, because the situation created would obviously not allow a smooth resolution of the process," Mr Gorani said: "A Tadic victory would probably mean a less speedy declaration of independence but better long-term prospects for stability."

Mr Tadic and Mr Nikolic reject independence for a region that has been run by the UN since Nato bombs ended Belgrade's brutal 1998-1999 crackdown on separatist rebels. About 10,000 ethnic Albanians are believed to have died in the onslaught.

But while Mr Nikolic threatens to sever ties with western states that support Kosovo's sovereignty, Mr Tadic says Serbia must continue pushing for EU membership. Last night Serbian prime minister Vojislav Kostunica announced he would not support Mr Tadic in the election. "Since our coalition partner did not want to accept an annexe to the coalition agreement, we cannot support him," said Mr Kostunica. Mr Nikolic, meanwhile, visited Moscow yesterday and restated his support for a strong relationship between Serbia and Russia.